Morning Brew September 5 2022

Good Morning

On this US Holiday, risk aversion and a weak Euro dominate overall sentiment. Russia announced it was not taking Nord Stream online again after the recent maintenance – a further surege of energy cost is expected and is weighing on Indexes. the Euro and GBP.

The USD Index reaches a new high of above 110, levels not seen since the early 2000`, ne next big chart level would be the 120.

EURUSD Fell to below 99 and a 20 Year Low against the USD, GBPUSD below 1.15 Bitcoin and  ETH are trading at 19700 and 1562, Gold and Silver are so far stable at 1711 and 18.08.

The Dax Index is under pressure, losing 3% off Fridays Close int eh Future (measured against the cash index close at 17:30 the previous day) So far the  12,438 level is holding up.

Several European governments announced emergency measures to help deal with high energy costs and there is an EU Energy crisis meeting on September 9^th. Sweden is setting up a emergency finds to the tune of €23 bio and Germany €65 bio

The Chinese PMI fell slightly on renewed Covid fears.

It seems the Energy Cost Crisis will dominate the news this week, also the ECB rate decision will be watched closely on Thursday, as of now, a probability of 92% is being traded for a 75 BPS hike, in the US a 57% chance for a 75 BPS hike (on September 22)

Markets are stuck in Limbo trying to assess the implications of Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday.

Economic Data

Today: Swiss GDP, International PMI, EU Retail Sales

Tuesday: De Industrial Orders, EU and US PMI,

Wednesday: AU GDP, China Exports, DE Industrial Output, EU GDP, CA Care Decision,

Thursday; CH Unemployment Rate, ECB Rate decision, US Jobs data

Friday: CN PPI, CA Unemployment rate

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures:

White Sugar - Oct 2022 (WV2) will expire 7^th Sep at 9:00 GMT

Euro-BONO - Sep 2022 (FBONU2) will expire 7^th Sep at 12:00 GMT

Euro-BTP - Sep 2022 (FBTPU2), Short-Term-Euro-BTP - Sep 2022 (FBTSU2), Euro-Bund - Sep 2022 (FGBLU2), Euro-BOBL - Sep 2022 (FGBMU2), Euro-Schatz - Sep 2022 (FGBSU2), Euro-BUXL - Sep 2022 (FGBXU2), Euro-OAT - Sep 2022 (FOATU2),  will expire 7^th Sep at 1500 GMT