Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew September 3 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Nonfarm in focus after disappointing Chinese PMI


Good Morning

Equities remain at or near highs ahead of todays Nonfarm Payroll release and the USD is weakening. Markets are expecting that the result of the date (release 14:30 CET) will justify the Fed to continue it`s asset purchase program beyond the next meeting on September 22.  As the Feds Mandate includes employment as well as monetary stability, a disappointing figure would provide that option while a high surprise could put pressure on Equities and boost the USD.

Yesterday the Dow gained 0.37%, the S&P 500  0.28% and the  Nasdaq 0.14%, Futures are also friendly over night despite a terrible Chinese PMI. The USD Index trades at 92.20 and EURUSD rises to 1.1877.  Gold and silver are trading 1812 and 23.95, Bitcoin jell to just below 50k.

China's services sector dropped into contraction mode in August with the Caixin/Markit PMI falling from 54.9 to 46.7. Tencent and Alibaba pledge USD 16bio each to support President Xi`s common prosperity

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga announced his resignation today

The German Rail remains on strike 

My amazing  colleague Althea wrote an article on why Tapering matters, it is definitely worth a read:
In this article, we want to explain why tapering matters for your portfolio. In an accessible Q&A format, we outline what happened with tapering in the past what it could mean for markets today.
https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/bonds/tapering-what-is-it-and-why-should-you-care-02092021

Carbon certificates rose 2.2% yesterday – possibly aided by a quite absurd clip in German TV that went viral on Twitter regarding the climate policies of German parties ahead of the election.

NFP Preview: Consensus estimate is 750k added employees, low estimate is 375k and high 1027k. Median is 750 and mean 726. Prior was 943k.

At the same time, the Jobless rate will be released with an expectation of 5.2% and average earnings at 4%

The EU PMI will be released at 10:00 CET expected at 59.7 and at 15:45 the US PMI at 61.5. If either follows China we could be in for a nasty surprise. 

Trade safely

 

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.