Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew September 11 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Busy Week Ahead


Good Morning

Due to private travels and events, this is the only Morning brew this week so I try to highlight the coming events.

Last Week, Indexes lost overall with the S&P 500 at -1.3%, the Dow at -0.75% and the Nasdaq -1.93% but Friday was a fairly uninspired day with low volumes.

Over the weekend, Risk sentiment stabilizes with Equity Futures recovering and the USD giving up some ground. EURUSD rose to 1.0730, GBPUSD rises to 1.2520 and USDJPY falls ot below 146 on remarks by BoJ Governor Ueda that the central bank could end its negative interest rate policy when the 2% inflation target is in sight. Gold and Silver recover to 1927 and 23.08 while Indexes gain between 0.2-0.4%. The Yuan recovered from it`s 16-year low of 7.3510 per dollar on Friday to 7.3188.

This week we are expecting a lot of economic data the US CPI and PPI key along the ECB rate decision on Thursday along the Press conference. The ARM IPO and Apple will be closely watched as well, the IPO will be a great test of sentiment while Apple will hold the Keynote on the one hand and seems to be the center of a possible trade/ Sanction standoff between the US and China.

The ECB is currently expected to take no action with a probability of 58% so that could be a close one. The peak ECB rate is currently seen in December, 18 basis points above the current level, over 2024 2 cuts are priced in.

The Fed will most likely not take any action next week – no change is seen with a 93% probability.

Trade safely, it feels there is more event risk around than is being priced in in my view.

Monday

- Norway CPI 3, 6 month and 3 Year Bond Auction,

Tuesday
- Data: UK Labor Data, Norway GDP, Spain CPI, German ZEW, US 10 Year Bond Auction
-

Wednesday
- Data UK GDP, HK PPI, EU industrial Production. US CPI,   30 Year Bond Auction

Thusday
- Data AU Unemployment rate, Sweden CPI, ECB Rate decision, US PPI, Retail Sales.

Friday
- Data AU PMI, China, Urban Output & Retail Sales, EU Trade Balance, US NY Fed, Industrial production.

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.