Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew October 30 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Data, Central Banks and War


Good Morning

Please bear in mind that due to the European Daylight Savings Time change, trading hours are different this week, US Open is at 14:30 CET and Option Expiry for FX at 15:00 CET.

It seems that we are often seeing a delayed reaction to market news at the moment, also in Friday, after the European close, we saw a short-squeeze that drove Gold and Silver higher Friday, evening bringing Gold to above 2000 and Silver back above 23. Right now, Gold is at 1995 and Silver 23.05. The USD Index is trading at 106.50 and the 10 year yield at 4.85. EURUSD is 1.0565, GBPUSD 1.2130 and USDJPY 149.44. It seems the BOJ is active ahead of the BoJ Meeting. Bitcoin remains near 35k.

The US500 is currently trading at 4136,the US30 32530, the Tech 100 NAS at 14270 and the GER40 14700. Last week, all three big US indexes suffered losses of more than 2%. Ford Motors lost 12.2% on Friday, Chevron 6.7% while Intel could add more than 9%.

Peter wrote a strong article on Friday focusing on what is likely to happen it 10 Yields break above the 5% : The interest rate sensitivity is thus dominating over higher growth rates which is likely due to the high equity valuations in US technology stocks. For the short-term trader a break above 5% in the US 10-year yield is thus a significant event because it could trigger new declines in US technology stocks.

Kim takes a look at technicals : Hang Seng Ind / HK50, China A50 and JP225 bouncing from supports

Headlines:

  • In the Middle East, fighting intensifies as Israel attacks Hamas in Gaza
  • A Reuters Survey showed, three-quarters of over 200 economists see a risk they underestimate inflation- suggesting interest rates will also remain higher for longer.
  • The G7 industrial countries will agree a code of conduct for companies developing advanced artificial intelligence systems
  • HSBC announced a fresh share buyback and a miss of profitability expectations.

 

This week will be very busy with Central Bank Decisions, Data, Earnings as well as the war in the middle east. Continue to trade cautiously - It will be very intersting to see where we will  be trading in Equities, Rates, Oil, Precious Metals and FX by Friday. 

Key Upcoming Events:

Monday
- Data, Sweden GDP, Swiss KOF, DE GDP, EU Consumer Confidence, DE CPI

- Earnings HSBC, SoFi, Pinterest, McDonalds

Tuesday
- Data: Bank of Japan Rate Decision, Unemployment Rate, China Manufacturing PMI, France CPI, EU HICP, EU GDP, Canada GDP, US Consumer Confidence,.
- Earnings AMD, Pfizer, Cat,

Wednesday
- Data International PMI, US Rate Decision
- Earnings Paypal, AirBnB, Qualcom, CVS

Thusday
- Data Germany PMI, Unemployment Rate, Bank of England Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders.
- Earnings Apple, Palantir, Shopify, Coinbase, Starbucks,

Friday
- Data EU Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls
- Earnings Enbridge, RBI,

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

EMAX3 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 14:00 GMT

HGX3 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT

RRX3 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT

XKX3 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT

ZSX3 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT

HOX3 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT

RBX3 will expire 31 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT

Expiring CFDs

CHINA50OCT23 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 02:00 GMT

HK50OCT23 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 02:00 GMT

OILUKDEC23 will expire 31 Oct 2023 at 16:00 GMT

 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.