Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew October 26 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Risk Off Sentiment prevails ahead of key data


Good Morning

Severe volatility remains as traders are trying to digest yields, news and data.

Google was the huge mover yesterday, the stock lost 9.5% and weighed on indexes. The S&P500 closed below 4200 and the 4195 support. The Dow gave up 0.3%, the S&P500 1.4% and the Nasdaq 2.4%.  Overnight, sentiment cannot recover and we are giving up further ground with the US500 at 4160, the US 30 32950 and the UStech100NAS at 14220. The GER 40 is trading at 14750.

As 10 Year Yields are back near the 5%, the USD Index recovers to 106.60. EURUSD falls to 1.0543, GBPUSD 1.2080 and USDJPY takes the crucial 150 level and can head to 152

Gold and Silver remain fairly strong at 1987 and 22.96, Bitcoin remains at 34600.


The U.S. House of Representatives has a new speaker in Mike Johnson, ending a power vacuum.

  • Meta beat estimates and initially rose but closed the after hour session 3% below the close, the outlook was not optimistic enough in traders views.
  • IBM Beat estimates.
  • US new home sales surged 12.3% in September to 759k (prev. 676k), way above the expected 680k.
  • The United Auto Workers union reached a tentative agreement with Ford Motors for a 25% wage hike over the 4-1/2-year contract, starting with an initial increase of 11%.
  • VW reports strong sales but is not happy with the profitablily.
  • Hyundai Motor's Q3 net profit rises 151%,
  • In a mass shooting in Maine, 22 people have been killed.

Today we are expecting the Turkish and ECB Rate decisions as well as US Durable Goods orders and the GDP Advance. The ECB will likely not change rates (99%), the Durable Goods are expected at 1.7% and the GDP at 4.3%. The press conference of Mme Lagarde will be closely watched.

In politics, the Middle East remains in focus as Israel is starting ground attacks against Hamas and Putin warns the conflict may spread beyond the middle east. Chana`s Foreign Minister is visiting Washington .

Key Events this week:

- Data Japan PPI, Turkey Rate decision, ECB Rate DecisionUS Durable Goods and GDP Advance,
- Earnings UPS; Northrop Gruman, Merck, Amazon, Intel, Ford,

Data US Core PCE, University of Michigan
- Earnings Exxon, Chevron,


Physically Settled Futures

NGX3 will expire 26 Oct 2023 at 07:30 GMT

TTFMX3 will expire 27 Oct 2023 at 09:00 GMT

Expiring CFDs

GASOLINEUSNOV23 will expire 27 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT

HEATINGOILNOV23 will expire 27 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT

SOYBEANSNOV23 will expire 27 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT



Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.