Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Better than expected fundamental data failed to inspire yesterday as the hoped easing of Corona measures in China failed to materialize yesterday but come partially true over night. .
A speech by Jerome Powell tonight (19:30 CET ) came into focus and it seems no one wanted to take any significant risk ahead of it.
US Indexes mostly close lower a little lower Apple gives up 2.1% on worries on production issues in China but overall volumes were very low at 9.6 billion shares.
Several Chinese regions announce some easing of Corona restrictions and in Hong Kong and China, stock markets celebrate the Hong Kong Index rose from a low at 16800 to now 18230. The Optimism pulls European and US Futures higher.
Credit Suisse continues it`s descend to trade as low as 2.87 and credit default swaps are at a record.
German Inflation fell slightly to 10% from 10.4 in October, causing the Bund Future to rise, todays EU Inflation data at 11 will be highly important.
Overall traders and investors are looking for clues it we get a strong year end rally or not and either the speech by Jerome Powell tonight or the Non farm Payroll on Friday could give the impulse either way. As we are at month end, we could see month end adjustments.
Economic Data:
Wednesday: CH KOF, AT HCIP, DE Unemployment, EU HICP, US GDP
Thursday: International PMI
Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.