Morning Brew November 26 2021
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk Off on new corona variant, Black Friday with new meaning?
Equities are under pressure on the new corona variant that seems to be more infectious than other variants. Oil falls 3.5% and bonds rise. The UK limited travel to several destinations, China imposed new measures as did Japan. Given the way the market reacts, Black Friday may get a new meaning.
Equity futures are under pressure with the Dax giving up 1.9%, the Eurostoxx50 2.2% and US Indexes 1.25 (S&P 500 and Dow) and the Nasdaq 0.65%. US 10 Year yields gapped lower to 1.54, down 10 bps.
EURUSD remains stable at 1.1220 but GBP fell against the USD and the Euro to new 2021 lows on growth fears, trading below 1.33 and 0.8437 Gold is higher at 1800 and Silver torn between the industrial and the precious metal unmoved at 23.60. The Turkish Lira “stabilitzed” near the 12 figure.
Bitcoin remains at 57k despite news that India is looking to ban crypto currencies.
Bloomberg reports the highest inflow to Equity Funds this year, more than in the last 20 years combined
China is asking Uber competitor Didl to delist in the US
The Japanese Prime minister asks companies to raise rates by more than 3%, that seems not to support the transitory inflation theme.
Todays agenda is fairly empty and I believe the German Import prices will fade behind the new corona variant.
Please remember that US Exchanges will close early today due to the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US:
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.