Morning Brew July 27 2021
Senior Relationship Manager
Equities remain under pressure, USD Gains, Crypto drops significantly as the probability of a 75 BPS hike in June is at 75%, Chinese Lockdowns weigh heavy on Risk sentiment and new sanctions on Russia raise worries.
US 10 Year Yields rise to 3.15, the Bund Future falls to 151, GBPUSD to 1.2280 and EURUSD to 1.0509. USDJPY breached 131. The 1 month volatility in EURUSD rose to 10.5
The Dax is looking to open app 1% lower alongside US Indexes, the US 500 is at 4088 and the USTECH100 at 12587.
Bitcoin dropped to 33500 or 7%
All eyes will be on sentiment today as there is little on the economic agenda today. Key this week will be CPI numbers from China, Germany and the US on Wednesday. The May parade celebrating the allied victory over Germany is taking place and some fear an escalation in Ukraine.
Many assets are at key levels and markets are extremely nervous. Fear is in the driver seat but we have huge amounts of cash on the sidelines and Thursday we saw the largest inflow into managed assets this year so we could see a bear market rally.
Today: Hong Kong, Philippines, Russia.
Tue 10th May: Russia
Physically Settled Futures:
FPK2 will expire on 11th May at 15:00 GMT.
GASOILUKMAY22 will expire on 10th May at 15:00 GMT.
OILUSJUN22 will expire on 18th May at 15:00 GMT.
Futures can be rolled online via the Futures Spread Trade Ticket. Any open positions will be closed after the mentioned times.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.