Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Equities remain under pressure, USD Gains, Crypto drops significantly as the probability of a 75 BPS hike in June is at 75%, Chinese Lockdowns weigh heavy on Risk sentiment and new sanctions on Russia raise worries.
US 10 Year Yields rise to 3.15, the Bund Future falls to 151, GBPUSD to 1.2280 and EURUSD to 1.0509. USDJPY breached 131. The 1 month volatility in EURUSD rose to 10.5
The Dax is looking to open app 1% lower alongside US Indexes, the US 500 is at 4088 and the USTECH100 at 12587.
Bitcoin dropped to 33500 or 7%
All eyes will be on sentiment today as there is little on the economic agenda today. Key this week will be CPI numbers from China, Germany and the US on Wednesday. The May parade celebrating the allied victory over Germany is taking place and some fear an escalation in Ukraine.
Many assets are at key levels and markets are extremely nervous. Fear is in the driver seat but we have huge amounts of cash on the sidelines and Thursday we saw the largest inflow into managed assets this year so we could see a bear market rally.
Holidays
Today: Hong Kong, Philippines, Russia.
Tue 10th May: Russia
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
FPK2 will expire on 11th May at 15:00 GMT.
Expiring CFDs:
GASOILUKMAY22 will expire on 10th May at 15:00 GMT.
OILUSJUN22 will expire on 18th May at 15:00 GMT.
Futures can be rolled online via the Futures Spread Trade Ticket. Any open positions will be closed after the mentioned times.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.