Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
Monday and Tuesday I will be travelling...
The Markets seems very headline driven so here we are:
US 2 year yields fell as low as 3.65 yesterday and recover to now 3.79, The USD Index is meandering the 101 level above support despite EURUSD being relatively weak at 1.1044, GBPUSD rose to above 1.26 and USDJPY fell to 133.90. Gold and Silver remain strong at 2050 and 26.
Indexes gave up ground yesterday but could gain over night on the apple results and a decent Chinese PMI. The US 500 is trading at 4075, the US Wallstreet 30 at 33200, the USTech100 at 13040 and the GER40 at 15790. The Vix was rising yesterday, showing nervousness. Volumes were way above average.
Today focus is on the US Non-Farm Payroll where we are looking for 180k as a headline, unemployment 3.6% and hourly earnings at 0.3%.
Also, any new banking issues – or a clear signal from the Fed on a broader approach will be key for sentiment.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.