Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Fear of sticky inflation and high rates cause nervousness
Good morning to a data heavy day in nervous markets.
Germany`s CPI came at 2.4% yesterday as was expected but the harmonized one was 2.8% vs 2.7% expected, this raised fears that inflation may be stickier than hoped. The rising commodity prices and rising shipping rates also hint that we may see elevated prices for a while at least.
US Indexes fell with the Dow down just above 1% the S&P500 -0.75% and Nasdaq gives up 0.6%. The GER40 is testing the 18400 as and has room until 18200 as inital move.
As the earnings season is winding down, we saw Salesforce and American Airlines falling more than 10% on a disappointing outlook and Dick's Sporting Goods rose 16%. Nvidia closed at 1148.
US 10-year yields rose to 4.6% and the USD index to 105.13, EURUSD fell below 1.08 to trade at 1.0790, GBPUSD is at 1.2690 and USDJPY 157.10. This morning, Gold and Silver are under pressure, trading at 31.40 and 2330. Bitcoin and Ethereum are slightly green at 68000 and 3773.
Looking at today’s data announcements, there are few top tier releases but a lot of second tier releases that could find attention in the nervous environment:
8:00 Swiss Trade, Sweden GDP, Denmark Unemployment Rate
9:00 Swiss GDP & KOF, Spain HICP, Sweden Consumer Confidence
10:00 Italy Unemployment
11:00 EU Unemployment Rate & Sentiment
14:30 US GDP, Core PCE Prices, Initial Jobless Claims,
17:00 EIA Inventories
17:30 US 4 Week Bill Auction.
Tomorrow will be the key day of the week with the EU and US Inflation data and month ultimo. June will certainly be an interesting month with central bank decisions and the highest net government bond supply ever at USD 340 billion in the US, EU and UK.
The key questions over the next two days are:
- how sticky is inflation?
- how senstitive are markets to it?
- How much position adjustment will be see and what will the impact be.
Trade carefully
Thursday
- Data CH KoF Indicator, EU Consumer Confidence & Unemployment rate, US GDP& Initial Jobless Claims
- Earnings: Dell Technologies, Marvell, Costco
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, China PMI, France CPI, EU Inflation, US PCE and CA GDP
Expiries
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