Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew May 30 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Fear of sticky inflation and high rates cause nervousness


Good morning to a data heavy day in nervous markets.

Germany`s CPI came at 2.4% yesterday as was expected but the harmonized one was 2.8% vs 2.7% expected, this raised fears that inflation may be stickier than hoped. The rising commodity prices and rising shipping rates also hint that we may see elevated prices for a while at least.

US Indexes fell with the Dow down just above 1% the S&P500 -0.75% and Nasdaq gives up 0.6%. The GER40 is testing the 18400 as and has room until 18200 as inital move.

As the earnings season is winding down, we saw Salesforce and American Airlines falling more than 10% on a disappointing outlook and Dick's Sporting Goods rose 16%. Nvidia closed at 1148.

US 10-year yields rose to 4.6% and the USD index to 105.13, EURUSD fell below 1.08 to trade at 1.0790, GBPUSD is at 1.2690 and USDJPY 157.10. This morning, Gold and Silver are under pressure, trading at 31.40 and 2330. Bitcoin and Ethereum are slightly green at 68000 and 3773.

Looking at today’s data announcements, there are few top tier releases but a lot of second tier releases that could find attention in the nervous environment:

8:00 Swiss Trade, Sweden GDP, Denmark Unemployment Rate
9:00 Swiss GDP & KOF, Spain HICP, Sweden Consumer Confidence
10:00 Italy Unemployment
11:00 EU Unemployment Rate & Sentiment
14:30 US GDP, Core PCE Prices, Initial Jobless Claims,
17:00 EIA Inventories
17:30 US 4 Week Bill Auction.

Tomorrow will be the key day of the week with the EU and US Inflation data and month ultimo. June will certainly be an interesting month with central bank decisions and the highest net government bond supply ever at USD 340 billion in the US, EU and UK.

The key questions over the next two days are:
- how sticky is inflation?
- how senstitive are markets to it?
- How much position adjustment will be see and what will the impact be.

Trade carefully

Thursday
- Data CH KoF Indicator, EU Consumer Confidence & Unemployment rate, US GDP& Initial Jobless Claims
- Earnings: Dell Technologies, Marvell, Costco
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, China PMI, France CPI, EU Inflation, US PCE and CA GDP

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures


EMAM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 13:00
GCM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
MGCM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
TNM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
UBM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
Z3NM will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
ZBM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
ZFM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
ZNM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
ZTM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
HOM4 will expire on 31 May 2024 at 15:00
RBM4 will expire on 31 May 2024 at 15:00

 

Expiring CFDs
HK50MAY24 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 14:00
CHINA50MAY24 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 14:00

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.