Morning Brew July 27 2021

Good Morning

The Dollar gained on the looming debt ceiling  and hawkish speakers while equities suffered on than expected retail sales and disappointing numbers as well as outlook by Home Depot. Thomas Barkin stared he was comfortable with hiking rates further and Loretta Mester stated in her view the Fed could not hold rates just yet.

The Dow lost 1%, the S&P 0.6 and the Nasdaq 0.2%, volumes were low at more than 10% below the recent average. The GER40 remains rangebound at 15917. Peter Garnry but out a note on the biggest drivers of the European equity rally yesterday, worth a read!

President Biden and Kevin McCarthy met yesterday and were cautiously optimistic that a solution would be found. Biden said the leaders reached "an overwhelming consensus ... that defaulting on the debt is simply not an option. Our economy would fall into recession acc to Reuters.

Longer Term US rates rose yesterday while the short end of the curve changed little yesterday.

JPY weakens despite a better than expected Japanese GDP (+0.4% vs 0.1% expected) to trade at 136.80. EURUSD falls to 1.0860, GBPUSD 1.2470. Gold and Silver remain on support and are likely to move either way soon.

UBS estimates a financial hit of USD 17Bio, a legal risk of 4 bio but a negative goodwill of 34 bio from the Credit Suisse takeover. It will be an interesting half year report.

Tesla held the annual shareholder meeting, Elon Must stated the Cybertruck would be delivered this year and that he would not step down as CEO.

Tomorrow is a holiday in much of Europe and there could be less liquidity. I will not be in the office until Tuesday afternoon.

There are few top of the range economic releases the next few days, watch the Debt Celing negotiations and the G/ as key events we know of.

Trade Safely.

• Wednesday: 
  Data: Japan GDP, EU HICP, US Housing Starts Bostic Speaks,
  Earnings:, Tencent Holdings Sea Ltd,Muenchener Rueckversicherung, Siemens, TJX Cos, Cisco Systems, Synopsys, Target, Experian
  
  

• Thursday: 
  Data: Japan Trade, AU Employment, US Philly Fed, Existing Home Sales, Barr and Logan Speak
  Earnings:  National Grid, Alibaba Group, Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Walmart
  
  
• Friday: 
  Data: Japan CPI, CA Retail Sales
  Earnings: Deere Tokio Marine Holdings ,
  
  
• Monday 
  Data: Japan Machine Orders, China Prime Rate
  
  
• Tuesday: 
  Data: International PMI,