Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Tomorrow I will be on a business Trip and not writing an update. Watch out for the Chinese, German and US CPI numbers at 8:00 CET and 14:30 CET as the key events.
Yesterday was a terrible day for risk assets across the board, with the S&P 500 closing below 4,000 for the first time since late March 2021, the Dow lost 2%, the S%P 500 down 3.2% and the Nasdaq more than 4%. Tesla and Nvidia lost more than 9%, Nvidia has now lost 50% off the top.
Energy Stocks lost across the board as oil fell. The sector closed 8% lower.
Gold and Silver dropped to1850 and 21.70 before recovering to 1863 and 22.05, Bitcoin held above 30k and is currently at 31800. EURUSD is trading 1.0570, GBPUSD at 1.2355 and USDJPY 130.36. The Turkish Lira has fallen to more than 15 Lira per USD.
Overnight the likelihood of a 75 BPS hike in June has fallen by 9% to 67% and this seems to relieve some of the pressure. The 10 Year US Yield fell by 15 BPS to 3.05.
The main concern of the selloff seems to be worries that demand will be significantly impacted by higher financing costs across the board as well as fears of continued lockdowns in China limiting supply.
High inflation, volatility in stock and commodity markets and the war in Ukraine are the key risks to the U.S. financial system a report by the Fed states. It does not mention liquidity even though 4 central banks are now withdrawing it. German officials told Reuters that the government is preparing for a sudden halt of Russian Gas deliveries that could cost as much as 500k jobs and would cause a severe recession.
There was no major new development in the Ukraine war during May Day in Russia but rockets are striking Odessa.
The German ZEW is the only economic release oof note today, sentiment will continue to drive markets and caution remains paramount.
I would make any significant bets using options despite the high volatility, to limit exposure to sharp adverse moves.
Holidays
Today: Hong Kong, Philippines, Russia.
Tue 10th May: Russia
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
FPK2 will expire on 11th May at 15:00 GMT.
Expiring CFDs:
GASOILUKMAY22 will expire on 10th May at 15:00 GMT.
OILUSJUN22 will expire on 18th May at 15:00 GMT.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.