Morning Brew May 10 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Tomorrow I will be on a business Trip and not writing an update. Watch out for the Chinese, German and US CPI numbers at 8:00 CET and 14:30 CET as the key events.
Yesterday was a terrible day for risk assets across the board, with the S&P 500 closing below 4,000 for the first time since late March 2021, the Dow lost 2%, the S%P 500 down 3.2% and the Nasdaq more than 4%. Tesla and Nvidia lost more than 9%, Nvidia has now lost 50% off the top.
Energy Stocks lost across the board as oil fell. The sector closed 8% lower.
Gold and Silver dropped to1850 and 21.70 before recovering to 1863 and 22.05, Bitcoin held above 30k and is currently at 31800. EURUSD is trading 1.0570, GBPUSD at 1.2355 and USDJPY 130.36. The Turkish Lira has fallen to more than 15 Lira per USD.
Overnight the likelihood of a 75 BPS hike in June has fallen by 9% to 67% and this seems to relieve some of the pressure. The 10 Year US Yield fell by 15 BPS to 3.05.
The main concern of the selloff seems to be worries that demand will be significantly impacted by higher financing costs across the board as well as fears of continued lockdowns in China limiting supply.
High inflation, volatility in stock and commodity markets and the war in Ukraine are the key risks to the U.S. financial system a report by the Fed states. It does not mention liquidity even though 4 central banks are now withdrawing it. German officials told Reuters that the government is preparing for a sudden halt of Russian Gas deliveries that could cost as much as 500k jobs and would cause a severe recession.
There was no major new development in the Ukraine war during May Day in Russia but rockets are striking Odessa.
The German ZEW is the only economic release oof note today, sentiment will continue to drive markets and caution remains paramount.
I would make any significant bets using options despite the high volatility, to limit exposure to sharp adverse moves.
Today: Hong Kong, Philippines, Russia.
Tue 10th May: Russia
Physically Settled Futures:
FPK2 will expire on 11th May at 15:00 GMT.
GASOILUKMAY22 will expire on 10th May at 15:00 GMT.
OILUSJUN22 will expire on 18th May at 15:00 GMT.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.