Senior Relationship Manager
Overly Complacent? Nvidia pulls markets higher exaggerate
Good Morning,
Welcome to the last trading day of the first Quarter and the finale of the Japanese fiscal year.
Equities and Risk on sentiment wavered yesterday and indexes fell. The lack of any real progress in Ukraine disappoints and there was little basis for optimism. Inflation is rising and calling for action. The Dow fell 0.19%, the S&P 500 0.63%, and the Nasdaq 1.21%, the USD Index fell to below 98, yields fall 20 bps from Mondays high to trade at 2.35 (10 Year) EURUSD is trading at 1.1167 and GBPUSD 1.3130.
Bitcoin is holding at 47k and Ethereum at 3390 Bitcoin has recovered 42% off the quarters low. Gold and silver receded to 1923 and 24.60.
Over the last few days, risky assets saw massive inflows of funds and made up for a decent part of the quarters losses, it will ne interesting to see how today plays out. Goldman Sachs continues to expect massive inflows to the equity markets as there is USD 15 Trillion in cash on the sidelines.
The US is considering releasing up to 180 million barrels of oil over several months driving oil lower to 108 in the UK line.
European Goverments are advising their citizens to reduce energy consumption to get ready for a suspension of Russian energy deliveries.
Chinese PMI contracted in March for the first time 2020, adding to the urgency for more policy intervention to stabilize the economy.
Negotiations in Ukraine are set to continue tomorrow so economic data and unscheduled news from Urkaine should be the key market movers along with quarter end moves.
Economic data today is the Swiss Retail Sales at 8:30, the Official Reserves at 9:00, German and EU Unemployment at 9:55 and 11:00 and US Employment and PCE data at 14:30. Lastly he Chicago PMI at 15:45.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
HOJ2, RBJ2 will expire 31st March at 15:00 GMT.
LEJ2 will expire 1st April at 15:00 GMT
WK2 will expire 6th April at 09:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs:
LIVECATTLEAPR22, OILUKMAY22 will expire 31st March at 15:00 GMT.
GASOILUKAPR22 will expire 8th April at 15:00 GMT
Sharp moves remain likely at any point in time, remain on your toes or adjust your positions.
The end of the road
Emboldened by surging crude oil prices, Saudi Arabia makes waves on the international stage, as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman manages to create a World Champions League, after buying the UEFA Champion League franchise.
As the world embraces GLP-1 obesity wonder drugs, the people next in line to get a prescription stop caring about dieting and exercising, figuring that the drug will later solve all of their weight-related health problems.
With the US budget deficit spiraling above 10% of the GDP, the government is desperate to foster demand for US Treasuries. Under intense pressure from the White House, Congress makes income from government bonds tax-free.
After a criminal group deploys the most deceptive AI deepfake ever seen, generative AI becomes a national security threat. With public distrust soaring, governments crack down with harsh new laws, puncturing the AI hype.
To fix the divergence in the global trade and financial system, the largest deficit countries unite to negotiate new world trade terms. For surplus countries, the reset of the global economic model is a painful adjustment.
As discontent with Biden and Trump rises to fever pitch, Robert F. Kennedy Jr sees his support rising inexorably in the polls. On November 5, Kennedy wins the US presidential election, ushering in a new era in US politics.
Stepping up Japan's economic transformation in 2024, PM Kishida brings in a host of populist policies to boost domestic demand. As the GDP growth rate hits 7%, the BoJ is forced to abandons its yield curve control policy.
As people wake up to how little tax Europe’s billionaires are actually paying, the EU Commission implements a wealth tax of 2%. The tax sends shockwaves through Europe's luxury industry, with luxury giant LVMH plunging 40%.