Morning Brew March 31 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
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Welcome to the last trading day of the first Quarter and the finale of the Japanese fiscal year.
Equities and Risk on sentiment wavered yesterday and indexes fell. The lack of any real progress in Ukraine disappoints and there was little basis for optimism. Inflation is rising and calling for action. The Dow fell 0.19%, the S&P 500 0.63%, and the Nasdaq 1.21%, the USD Index fell to below 98, yields fall 20 bps from Mondays high to trade at 2.35 (10 Year) EURUSD is trading at 1.1167 and GBPUSD 1.3130.
Bitcoin is holding at 47k and Ethereum at 3390 Bitcoin has recovered 42% off the quarters low. Gold and silver receded to 1923 and 24.60.
Over the last few days, risky assets saw massive inflows of funds and made up for a decent part of the quarters losses, it will ne interesting to see how today plays out. Goldman Sachs continues to expect massive inflows to the equity markets as there is USD 15 Trillion in cash on the sidelines.
The US is considering releasing up to 180 million barrels of oil over several months driving oil lower to 108 in the UK line.
European Goverments are advising their citizens to reduce energy consumption to get ready for a suspension of Russian energy deliveries.
Chinese PMI contracted in March for the first time 2020, adding to the urgency for more policy intervention to stabilize the economy.
Negotiations in Ukraine are set to continue tomorrow so economic data and unscheduled news from Urkaine should be the key market movers along with quarter end moves.
Economic data today is the Swiss Retail Sales at 8:30, the Official Reserves at 9:00, German and EU Unemployment at 9:55 and 11:00 and US Employment and PCE data at 14:30. Lastly he Chicago PMI at 15:45.
Physically Settled Futures:
HOJ2, RBJ2 will expire 31st March at 15:00 GMT.
LEJ2 will expire 1st April at 15:00 GMT
WK2 will expire 6th April at 09:00 GMT
LIVECATTLEAPR22, OILUKMAY22 will expire 31st March at 15:00 GMT.
GASOILUKAPR22 will expire 8th April at 15:00 GMT
Sharp moves remain likely at any point in time, remain on your toes or adjust your positions.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.