Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Goldilocks feeling to hold?
Good Morning,
Risk sentiment in equities continues to surges with all sorts of reasons being cited. In my view, technical are looking good, there is no more direct panic from the banking crises, people have money to invest and the outlook by some companies is surprisingly good while at the same time, interest rates are off the highs and inflation seems to be receding.
The recession and world-end fears have so far not materialized. I am not convinced the rally is justified but the trend is strong while it holds.
The US500 is trading above the psychologically important 4000 mark and the GER40 breached the 15300. Both leave further room to the upside.
US 2 year rates remain lower at 4.1% as the chances for a further hike by the fed are at 50/50 for 25BPS or no action, by December it is expected that rates will be app 50 bps below the current level.
The USD Index is rangebound between 102.40/80 with the major crosses little moved over night, EURUSD 1.0840, GBPUSD 1.2325 and USDJPY 132.540. Gold hasn`t moved that much and trades at 1862 while Silver is higher and testing the 23.50. A breach would open the way to 24.
Bitcoin tested the 29k over night and was rejected again.
Several business leaders including Elon Musk are suggesting a development moratorium for AI for 6 months to develop a regulatory framework.
Today we are awaiting the EU business climate and economic sentiment as well as the German inflation data at 11 and 14:00 ahead of the US employment and final GDP at 14:30.
Let us see if the optimistic sentiment holds – I remain optimistic but without serious conviction (meaning stops or put options to secure the positions)
Thursday, 30 March
Friday, 31 March
Earnings on watch this week:
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy