Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew March 25 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Slow Week until Friday?


Good Morning,

We are approaching the end of the Quarter end and what a quarter is has already been:

The US 500 is up 9.7% on the year, the US Tech 100 NAS +9%, the GER 40 +8.75% the Japan 225 is up 21%. Bitcoin rose more than 50%, Gold 5% and Silver 3.8%.  The Dollar Index rose 3.1% with EURUSD down 2.10%, GBPUSD -1%  but USDJPY +7.4%.
The most interesting stocks were Super Micro Computer at +240%, Nvidia at +90% and Rheinmetall at +75%. Tesla is the big lagger in the S&P500 at -31% and Apple lost 10.5%.

Nvidia has for the first time ever had eleven weeks of gains – will it manage 12?

Our FX strategist sees potential for a strong USD this week against most other currencies G old sideways and Silver weak - Weekly FX Chartbook: The return of US exceptionalism

With limited top-tier economic data expected for most of the week, traders may anticipate a relatively quiet start. However, attention may shift to Friday's release of the US CPE Deflator. It is the key inflation measurement of the US federal reserve.

The PCE will be released on Good Friday holiday and has this  the potential to have a dramatic impact as it is extremely important on the one hand and will hit extremely illiquid markets on the other – it always takes especially European traders by surprise that there is crucial US Data on a US holiday.

In addition to economic data, geopolitical events may also play a significant role in shaping market sentiment. The recent terror attack in Moscow and the absence of a ceasefire in Gaza may heighten global geopolitical tensions, potentially impacting risk assets and safe-haven instruments. The trade-frictions between the US and China seem to be entrenching as China announced over the weekend that Intel and AMD chips would be banned from Government PC.

As the quarter-end approaches, market participants may brace for increased volatility as portfolio rebalancing and position squaring take place. This period often sees heightened activity as fund managers and traders adjust their holdings, potentially leading to fluctuations in asset prices across equities, bonds, and currencies.

Trade carefully!

Monday
- Data  US New Home Sales
- Earnings: BNP

Tuesday
- Data Japan PPI, US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, Bostic speaks
- Earnings: BYD

Wednesday
- Data AU CPI EU Consumer Confidence, Waller Speaks,

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

NGJ4 will expire 25 Mar 2024 at 19:30 GMT

TTFMJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 10:00 GMT

GCJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

MGCJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

HOJ4 will expire 28 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

RBJ4 will expire 28 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

 

Expiring CFDs

GOLDAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

HEATINGOILAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

NATGASUSAPR24 will expire 22 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

OILUKMAY24 will expire 28 Mar 2024 at 16:00 GMT

GASOLINEUSAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.