Morning Brew March 20 2023

Good Morning,

Pls find today a short version of the Morning Brew from the road due to extraordinary circumstances.

Yesterday it was announced that Credit Suisse will be taken over by UBS for app CHF 3 Bio. In addition, certain bonds will be worthless and UBS will receive loss guarantees plus liquidity by the SNB.

So far the market reaction is muted and the move fails to inspire the confidence hoped for but there is so far also no major averse reaction in broader terms – Asian Banks are trading under pressure.

There will severe implications on the Suisse Banking from this decision and it is not yet clear if the overall focus will be positive for the rescue or largely negative that is was necessary.

The Corporate Bond market will be nervous after the value of the Credit Suisse's Additional Tier 1 will be written down acc to Reuters.

It is expected that Credit Suisse Investment Banking will be gradually wound down but details are lacking and there seem to be many rumors and contradicting articles so be careful with news.

Xi Xinping is visiting Moscow to hold talks on the war in Ukraine. 

Remain on your toes today and expect large market moves this week with more details coming out.

Macro data on watch this week:

Monday 20 March

• Germany         PPI (Feb)
• US                   Rightmove House Price (Mar)
• Malaysia          Exports (Feb)

Tuesday 21 March

• US                   Existing home sales (Feb)
• Germany         ZEW sentiment survey (Mar)
• Japan              Markets closed
• South Korea    Exports first 20 days (Mar)

Wednesday 22 March

• US                        Fed FOMC decisions
• UK                        CPI
• UK                        RPI

Thursday 23 March

• US                   New home sales (Feb)
• Eurozone         Consumer confidence (Mar)
• Switzerland     Swiss National Bank policy rate decisions  
• UK                        Bank of England policy rate decisions
• Norway           Norges Bank policy rate decisions
• Japan              Reuters Tankan manufacturing (Mar)
• Singapore        CPI (Feb)
• Hong Kong      CPI (Feb)

Friday 24 March

• US                        Durable goods orders (Feb)
• US                   S&P manufacturing PMI (Mar. preliminary)
• Eurozone         PMI composite (Mar)
• Germany         PMI composite (Mar)
• France             PMI composite (Mar)
• UK                   GfK consumer confidence (Mar)
• UK                   UK Retail sales (Feb)
• UK                   PMI composite (Mar)
• Japan              National CPI (Feb)
• Japan              PMI manufacturing (Mar)
• Malaysia\        CPI (Feb)
• Singapore        Industrial production (Feb)

Earnings on watch this week:

• Monday: PDD, Sunny Optical
• Tuesday: Nike, Anta Sports, RWE, Partners Group
• Wednesday: Tencent, China Telecom
• Thursday: Accenture, General Mills, Darden Restaurants, China Mobile
• Friday: Meituan, China Merchant Bank