Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk on in a week with little economic data
Good Morning,
Risk on sentiment drove stocks in to a strong weekly close that saw the S&P 7% higher . The Dow gained 2.7% the S&P 3.06 and the Nasdaq 3.3% on Friday. Driver was mainly that the economic slowdown and falling commodity prices would allow the FED and other central banks to be less hawkish.
Over night, sentiment remains strong and the GER40 gains to 13167, a break above 13220 would allow for 13500.
US 10 Year yields are at 3.18%, EURUSD 1.0560, GBPUSD at 1.2275, Gold and Silver could gain to 1834 and 21.35 – back in mid range. Oil gains off the low to trade at 107.20 in the US line.
At the G7 Meeting it was announced that an Import ban on Russian Gold is being planned, a break out of the range will likely be driven by rising short term rates, negative for gold, and the probability of a recession – implying rate cuts, positive for gold.
Bitcoin can recover to above 21k and ether to 1215.
The Turkish lira gained an on intervention that restrict lira lending to many companies with more than $1 million in foreign currency cash in the latest step to reverse a slide in the currency.
Russia is likely to in default as bond holders did not receive coupon payments by now
Swiss judges will announce their verdict if Suisse failed to prevent money laundering related to cocaine trafficking.
A winding-up petition has been filed against embattled property developer China Evergrande Group.
A complaint has been filed against Google in Denmark against the Google Job search.
This weeks key events are US Durable Goods Orders today at 14:30, US consumer Confidence tomorrow at 16:00 EU Consumer Confidence and the US GDP on Wednesday Thursday UK GDP, Swiss KOF, German and EU Unemployment,, German Price data, as well as US Consumption data Friday the Japanese will be released, followed by the Chinse and international PMIs
We are likely to see half year and quarterly position adjustments and overall nervous trading, the lack of decisive economic data will make for news driven trading
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
NGN2 will expire 27th June at 15:00 GMT
TTFMN2 will expire 28th June at 15:00 GMT
CNM2 will expire 29th June at 8:35 GMT
RRN2, SILN2, SIN2, STFN2, XCN2, XKN2, XWN2, ZCN2, ZLN2, ZMN2, ZSN2 will expire 29th June at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs:
COPPERUSJUL22, CORNJUL22, GASOLINEUSJUL22. HEATINGOILJUL22, SILVERJUL22, SOYBEANOILJUL22, SOYBEANMEALJUL22, SOYBEANSJUL22, SUGARNYJUL22, WHEATJUL22 will expire on 28th of June at 15:00 GMT
CHINA50JUN22, HK50JUN22,SINGAPOREJUN22, TAIWAN95JUN22 will expire 29th June at 2:00 GMT
Remain cautious!
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.