Morning Brew July 21 2023

Dear All,

Next week I will be on holiday. As we are in the peak of the earning season and have some important data releases ahead, please find the most important below

Yesterday, lower than expected initial jobless claims caused the expectations of a more hawkish fed to rise and let the USD gain strength, Tesla and Netflix were sold off massively. Tesla closed almost 10% lower and Netflix lost 8.4%. This dragged the Nasdaq to lose 2% while the Dow ended in the green at +0.47%. The S&P lost 0.7%.

Kim kindly put together a technical assessment of the new picture for Tesla, Netflix and TSM:

The 2 year US Yield rose to 4.85% before declining to 4.82, pulling the USD Index back to 100.80. EURUSD fell to 1.1140, GBPUSD to 1.2875 and USDJPY rose to 140.30. Gold and Silver fell to 24.80 and 1969.

Wheat prices are extremely volatile on the export woes, trading more than twice the average daily moves.

Expect to see a lot of nervousness going into the earnings releases next week as Tesla and Netflix have shown there can be more than more direction in Tec stocks.

Today is reportedly the largest option expiry ever, likely to cause some gamma moves towards the expiry times – watch out!

The economic calendar is thin today after the UK retail sales came higher than expected just now but mood can swing severely ahead of the key FOMC and Earnings week!

Have a great trading week and stay safe

Friday July 21

Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales
Earnings. American Express, Schlumberger

Monday July 24

International PMI,

Earnings: Cadence Design Systems Inc, NXP Semiconductors NV

Tuesday July 25

German IFO, US Consumer Confdence,

Earnings: Verizon Communications Inc, General Electric Co, Moody's Corp, General Motors Co, 3M Co, LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE, Chubb Ltd, Alphabet Inc, Microsoft, Texas Instruments Inc, Visa Inc,

Wednesday July 26

Japan PPI, AU CPI, US Rate Decision,

Earnings: Airbus SE, British American Tobacco PLC, GSK plc, Banco Santander SA, Amazon.com Inc, Porsche AG, Boeing Co, Coca-Cola Co, AT&T Inc, Meta Platforms Inc , CME Group Inc

Thursday July 27

ECB Rate decision, US Durable Goods, US GDP Advance,

Earnings: Roche Holding AG , Shell PLC, Total Energies, Iberdrola, BNP, VW, Linde,  Ford Motor Co, Roku Inc, Bancorp Inc, Juniper Networks Inc, Vale SA, First Solar Inc, Euronext , Northrop Grumman Corp, Mastercard Inc, Hertz Global Holdings Inc, Hershey Co, First Bancorp, Comcast Corp, Bristol-Myers Squibb Co, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd McDonald's Corp,

Friday July 28

Sweden GDP, EU Consumer Confidence, DE CPI, US Core PCE

Earning: Exxon Mobil Corp, Wisdomtree Inc, Clariant AG, Oriental Land Co Ltd, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings , ams Osram AG, Eni SpA, Engie SA, AstraZeneca PLC, Intel Corp