Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk Off prevails- will buyers step in?
Good Morning
Fridays we saw a selloff in equities USD strength, trigger was a combination of corona worries, a disappointing University of Michigan consumer confidence and profit taking on the failure to make new highs. Overnight the sentiment persist with major indexes 0.5% lower. Amazon Apple and Nvidia were weighed heavily on the Nasdaq with Nvidia giving up 4% . Cruise Lines lie Carnival and Norwegian lost 5%.
The USD Index remains strong at 92.75, EURSUD trades at 1.1800, GBPUSD at 1.3750 and Gold and Silver at 1806 and 25.35. Silver fell through the 200day moving average and has fallen through the 25.50 support
OPEC+ agreed to increase oil supply from August pushing the price app 1% lower.
Today the Agenda is basically empty, and key will be if the negative mood persists or if we find a buying interest to maintain in the range.
Netflix , Twitter, Johnson & Johnson, United Airlines and Intel, and many other companies will report earnings this week and the ECB meeting on Thursday will be very important along with global PMIs on Friday.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Relevance | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
20 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | CPI, Core Nationwide YY | Jun | 0.2% |
20 Jul 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | CPI, Overall Nationwide | Jun | |
20 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | New Zealand | High | Milk Auctions | 20 Jul, w/e | |
20 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Housing Starts Number | Jun | 1.590M |
21 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Exports YY | Jun | 46.2% |
21 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Imports YY | Jun | 29.0% |
21 Jul 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Trade Balance Total Yen | Jun | 460.0B |
22 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | High | Consumer Confidence | Jul | |
22 Jul 2021 | 08:45 | France | High | Business Climate Mfg | Jul | |
22 Jul 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | High | ECB Refinancing Rate | Jul | 0.00% |
22 Jul 2021 | 13:45 | Euro Zone | High | ECB Deposit Rate | Jul | -0.50% |
22 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Initial Jobless Clm | 12 Jul, w/e | |
22 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | United States | High | Existing Home Sales | Jun | 5.90M |
22 Jul 2021 | 16:00 | Euro Zone | High | Consumer Confid. Flash | Jul | -2.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Mfg PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Services PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | High | Comp PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales MM | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | High | Retail Sales YY | Jun | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:15 | France | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | 64.2 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Service Flash PMI | Jul | 59.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Mfg Flash PMI | Jul | 62.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Serv Flash PMI | Jul | 59.5 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | 60.1 |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Composite PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | High | Flash Services PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | High | IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | High | Retail Sales MM | May | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Mfg PMI Flash | Jul | |
23 Jul 2021 | 15:45 | United States | High | Markit Svcs PMI Flash | Jul |
(Refinitiv)
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach