Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 1 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning and welcome to Q3

Calm but strong start into Q3

Equities start in to the month friendly but with smaller moves, most significantly the S&P can record the 5th consecutive record while European equities seem locked in place. The Dow gained 0.6% yesterday, the Nasdaq 0.2% and the S&P 0.1%.

The USD Index rose to 92.40 while 10 Year rates remain near 1.5%. Bitcoin trades at 34400 and Gold and silver could move off the lower end of their trading range to currently 1775 and 26.15. EURUSD trades near support at 1.1847 and GBPUSD seems to be testing the 1.38 soon.

Ole Reports on the Grains: the USDA shocked the grain market when it published its quarterly stocks and annual acreage reports. The combination of lower than expected stocks and US farmers planting less acreage, thereby reducing the prospect of replenish stocks at a time of rising weather worries, helped send the Bloomberg Grains Spot index higher by 6.4% on the day.

In Japan the Tankan survey disappointed and the Nikkei traded 0.3% lower.

Key events today will be various PMI and US Initial Jobless claims, with a large surprise the German retail sales or the Swiss CPI at 8:30 could be interesting. Tomorrow, we are expecting the nonfarm payroll at 14:30 CET before a long US weekend. On Monday the 5th of July US Markets will be closed as the 4th falls on a Sunday. Watch out for possible profit taking ahead of the weekend.

  • Didl opened at USD 16.65 but retreated to near the IPO price at USD 14 and closed at USD 14.15
  • Credit Suisse will look to decide a future strategy before the end of the year, either alone or as part of a larger group .
  • Trump's company and its CFO were indicted yesterday
  • According to a UN Report, tourism will only fully recover in 2023

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

Unit

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Big Mf Idx

Q2

15

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Big Mf Outlook DI

Q2

18

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Big Non-Mf Idx

Q2

3

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan All Big Capex Est

Q2

7.2%

Percent

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Small Mf Idx

Q2

-5

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Sm Mf Outlook DI

Q2

-3

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Small Non-Mf Idx

Q2

-9

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan Sm Non-Mf Outlook DI

Q2

-8

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

01:50

Japan

Tankan All Sm Capex Est

Q2

-2.6%

Percent

1 Jul 2021

02:30

Japan

Jibun Bank Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

02:30

South Korea

IHS Markit Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

03:30

Australia

Trade Balance G&S (A$)

May

10,000M

AUD

1 Jul 2021

03:45

China (Mainland)

Caixin Mfg PMI Final

Jun

51.8

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

09:00

Turkey

Manufacturing PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

09:30

Sweden

Riksbank Rate

1 Jul

0.00%

Percent

1 Jul 2021

09:45

Italy

Markit/IHS Mfg PMI

Jun

62.2

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

09:50

France

Markit Mfg PMI

Jun

58.6

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit/BME Mfg PMI

Jun

64.9

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Mfg Final PMI

Jun

63.1

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI Final

Jun

64.2

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

11:00

Turkey

ITO Istanbul Retail Prices

Jun

Percent

1 Jul 2021

11:00

Euro Zone

Unemployment Rate

May

8.0%

Percent

1 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

26 Jun, w/e

390k

Person

1 Jul 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Mfg PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Mfg PMI Final

Jun

Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Jun

61.0

Index

2 Jul 2021

14:00

Brazil

Industrial Output MM

May

1.7%

Percent

2 Jul 2021

14:00

Brazil

Industrial Output YY

May

25.0%

Percent

2 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Non-Farm Payrolls

Jun

700k

Person

2 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Unemployment Rate

Jun

5.7%

Percent

2 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

Average Earnings YY

Jun

3.6%

Percent

2 Jul 2021

14:30

United States

International Trade $

May

-71.4B

USD

2 Jul 2021

14:30

Canada

Trade Balance C$

May

0.37B

CAD

2 Jul 2021

15:30

Canada

Markit Mfg PMI SA

Jun

Index (diffusion)

2 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

Factory Orders MM

May

1.6%

Percent

5 Jul 2021

02:30

Japan

Services PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

03:30

Australia

Building Approvals

May

Percent

5 Jul 2021

03:30

Australia

Retail Sales MM Final

May

Percent

5 Jul 2021

03:45

China (Mainland)

Caixin Services PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

USD

5 Jul 2021

09:00

Turkey

CPI MM

Jun

Percent

5 Jul 2021

09:50

France

Markit Serv PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

09:50

France

Markit Comp PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit Services PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

09:55

Germany

Markit Comp Final PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Serv Final PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Comp Final PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Services PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

5 Jul 2021

15:00

Brazil

Markit Composite PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

6 Jul 2021

06:30

Australia

RBA Cash Rate

Jul

0.10%

Percent

6 Jul 2021

08:00

Germany

Industrial Orders MM

May

Percent

6 Jul 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Economic Sentiment

Jul

Net balance

6 Jul 2021

11:00

Germany

ZEW Current Conditions

Jul

Net balance

6 Jul 2021

14:00

New Zealand

Milk Auctions

6 Jul, w/e

USD

6 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Comp Final PMI

Jun

Index (diffusion)

6 Jul 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Svcs PMI Final

Jun

Index (diffusion)

6 Jul 2021

16:00

United States

ISM N-Mfg PMI

Jun

63.0

Index

7 Jul 2021

05:00

New Zealand

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

NZD

7 Jul 2021

08:00

Germany

Industrial Output MM

May

Percent

7 Jul 2021

08:00

United Kingdom

Halifax House Prices MM

Jun

Percent

7 Jul 2021

08:00

Norway

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

NOK

7 Jul 2021

08:45

France

Reserve Assets Total

Jun

EUR

7 Jul 2021

09:00

Switzerland

Forex Reserves CHF

Jun

CHF

7 Jul 2021

14:00

Brazil

Retail Sales YY

May

Percent

(Refinitiv)


Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.