Morning Brew January 17 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Markets mixed on US Holiday
Please remember that US Markets are closed due to Martin Luther King day, this may help traders find some direction after the mixed session last Friday.
JPMorgan, Citi and Blackrock disappointed and their stocks fell by 6%, 1.3% and 2.2%. Wells Fargo can gain 3.7% after a positive surprise. And Indexes closed mixed. The Dow falls 0.56%, the S&P rises 0.08%, and the Nasdaq up 0.59%. Big Tech had a decent day, gaining near 1.5%. The University of Michigan Confidence came lower than expected.
Over night Chinas Retail Sales Disappointed at 1.7% vs 3.7% and Industrial output came better at 4.3% vs 3.6% and the central bank cut medium term lending rates.
Energy prices are becoming more of a subject with crude oil trading at the long term resistance. If Brent breaches the 86, there is significant upside potential.
The USD Index rebounds to 95.20 and the US 10 Year Yield is back at 1.77%, EURUSD fell to 1.1400 and GBPUSD 1.3670, Gold 1818 and Silver near 23.00. EURCHF is again in uncomfortable territory at 1.0440
Turkey attempted to verbally stabilize the TRY and briefly succeeded to reach 13.16 before we rose back to 13.55.
Corona-rule violations were in focus over the weekend with Credit Suisse Chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio resigning due to his conduct and Novak Djokovic has had his Australian visa cancelled by immigration minister Alex Hawke "on health and good order grounds"
This week will be driven by earnings including Goldman Sachs, Alcoa, Morgan Stanley, American Airlines, Netflix and Schlumberger starting tomorrow.
Key economic events are
German ZEW, Canada CPI, Japan Rate Decision
Wednesday: German and UK CPI
Thursday: Japan Trade Balance EU CPI, Turkey Rate decision
Friday UK Retail Sales and EU Consumer Confidence
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.