Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Markets mixed on US Holiday
Good Morning
Please remember that US Markets are closed due to Martin Luther King day, this may help traders find some direction after the mixed session last Friday.
JPMorgan, Citi and Blackrock disappointed and their stocks fell by 6%, 1.3% and 2.2%. Wells Fargo can gain 3.7% after a positive surprise. And Indexes closed mixed. The Dow falls 0.56%, the S&P rises 0.08%, and the Nasdaq up 0.59%. Big Tech had a decent day, gaining near 1.5%. The University of Michigan Confidence came lower than expected.
Over night Chinas Retail Sales Disappointed at 1.7% vs 3.7% and Industrial output came better at 4.3% vs 3.6% and the central bank cut medium term lending rates.
Energy prices are becoming more of a subject with crude oil trading at the long term resistance. If Brent breaches the 86, there is significant upside potential.
The USD Index rebounds to 95.20 and the US 10 Year Yield is back at 1.77%, EURUSD fell to 1.1400 and GBPUSD 1.3670, Gold 1818 and Silver near 23.00. EURCHF is again in uncomfortable territory at 1.0440
Turkey attempted to verbally stabilize the TRY and briefly succeeded to reach 13.16 before we rose back to 13.55.
Corona-rule violations were in focus over the weekend with Credit Suisse Chairman Antonio Horta-Osorio resigning due to his conduct and Novak Djokovic has had his Australian visa cancelled by immigration minister Alex Hawke "on health and good order grounds"
This week will be driven by earnings including Goldman Sachs, Alcoa, Morgan Stanley, American Airlines, Netflix and Schlumberger starting tomorrow.
Key economic events are
Tomorrow:
German ZEW, Canada CPI, Japan Rate Decision
Wednesday: German and UK CPI
Thursday: Japan Trade Balance EU CPI, Turkey Rate decision
Friday UK Retail Sales and EU Consumer Confidence
Trade safely.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.