Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew January 16 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Risk On Seems the Play


Good Morning, 

Risk continues to soar, US Indexes could rise again with the Dow up 0.3%, the S&P 500 +0.4% and the Nasdaq 0.7%. The S&P breaches the 200 Day Moving average, a bullish signal. All three were up for the week with the Nasdaq up almost 5%. The GER40 has entrenched itself above 15k to trade at 15120. Tesla fell on reported high discounts of up to 20%.

US 10 Year rates are at 3.5% and the yield curve remains inverted with the 2 Year at 4.22.

The USD Index is trading around 102, EURUSD 1.0840, GBPUSD 1.2235 and EURCHF is holding above parity as well as the 200 Day moving average, it is trading at 1,0035 The Japanese yen gained by over 3% against the USD last week, moving from highs of 132.87 to lows of 127.46 on Friday and 128. 09 now,  It will remain in focus this week as well as BOJ meets for the first time this year and speculation about a further policy tweak is rife, according to our Asian team.

Gold and Silver could both gain on Friday and are at 1915 and 24.35, Oil is meandering the 80.

The overall sentiment seems to be that everybody seems to be expecting a recession that has not yet arrived, and traders celebrate the rate cuts that have not yet materialized – a rather curious setup that is difficult to trade. While markets remain nervous, the  risk on trend seems to be firming - keep your risk under control though. 

This wee we are expecting some earnings and economic data of medium importance, the World Economic Forum in Davos is back after Covid and comments from the participants may move the markets. Among participants are business leaders, Central Bank Heads and politicians from all over the world along with various celebrities.  The topic this year is  “Cooperation in a Fragmented World’

Economic Data & Earnings

Monday

Germany Wholesale Prices

Austria CPI

Tuesday

China GDP, Retail Sales and Output

German CPI

EU CPI

Japan Rate decision

Earnings:  Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Interactive Brokers,

Wednesday

UK CPI

EU HICP Final

US PPI, Retail Sales, Capacity Utilization

Earnings: Charles Schwab,

Thursday

Swiss PPI

US Labor Data

Netflix, Procter & Gamble, Northern Trust

Friday

Japan CPI,

Germany PPI

Earnings: Sandvik, Schlumberger, State Street

 

Quarterly Outlook

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900 Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.