Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew January 16 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Risk On Seems the Play


Good Morning, 

Risk continues to soar, US Indexes could rise again with the Dow up 0.3%, the S&P 500 +0.4% and the Nasdaq 0.7%. The S&P breaches the 200 Day Moving average, a bullish signal. All three were up for the week with the Nasdaq up almost 5%. The GER40 has entrenched itself above 15k to trade at 15120. Tesla fell on reported high discounts of up to 20%.

US 10 Year rates are at 3.5% and the yield curve remains inverted with the 2 Year at 4.22.

The USD Index is trading around 102, EURUSD 1.0840, GBPUSD 1.2235 and EURCHF is holding above parity as well as the 200 Day moving average, it is trading at 1,0035 The Japanese yen gained by over 3% against the USD last week, moving from highs of 132.87 to lows of 127.46 on Friday and 128. 09 now,  It will remain in focus this week as well as BOJ meets for the first time this year and speculation about a further policy tweak is rife, according to our Asian team.

Gold and Silver could both gain on Friday and are at 1915 and 24.35, Oil is meandering the 80.

The overall sentiment seems to be that everybody seems to be expecting a recession that has not yet arrived, and traders celebrate the rate cuts that have not yet materialized – a rather curious setup that is difficult to trade. While markets remain nervous, the  risk on trend seems to be firming - keep your risk under control though. 

This wee we are expecting some earnings and economic data of medium importance, the World Economic Forum in Davos is back after Covid and comments from the participants may move the markets. Among participants are business leaders, Central Bank Heads and politicians from all over the world along with various celebrities.  The topic this year is  “Cooperation in a Fragmented World’

Economic Data & Earnings

Monday

Germany Wholesale Prices

Austria CPI

Tuesday

China GDP, Retail Sales and Output

German CPI

EU CPI

Japan Rate decision

Earnings:  Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Interactive Brokers,

Wednesday

UK CPI

EU HICP Final

US PPI, Retail Sales, Capacity Utilization

Earnings: Charles Schwab,

Thursday

Swiss PPI

US Labor Data

Netflix, Procter & Gamble, Northern Trust

Friday

Japan CPI,

Germany PPI

Earnings: Sandvik, Schlumberger, State Street

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

The information on or via the website is provided to you by Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. (“Saxo Bank”) for educational and information purposes only. The information should not be construed as an offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction or any particular service, nor should the contents be construed as advice of any other kind, for example of a tax or legal nature.

All trading carries risk. Loses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information provided and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for any losses or damages resulting from the use of such information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore has not been prepared in accordance with directives designed to promote the independence of financial/investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.