Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 27 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Will rates rise even more?


Good Morning,

Higher than feared PCE data on Friday caused a significant shift in rare expectations, we are now at a 25% probability of a 50 basis point hike on March 22. 2 year yields are approaching 5% at currently 4.85%.  The Peak rate this year is being traded at 5.4% This strengthened the USD and weighed on Equities.  Last week the Dow lost 2.99%, the S&P 2.66%, and the Nasdaq 3.33%. the USD Index completed it`s 4th week of gains to currently trade at 105.30 (106.40 is the next interesting level) EURUSD is trading at 1.0540,  GBPUSD 1.1940 and USDJPY   136.25. Gold and Silver continued their decline and are at 1808 and 20.65. Silver has broken he 200d MA and could test the important Fibonacci line at 20.20.

Watch Expiries today.

This week will be driven by ISM Data, International PMI, Fed speakers and not least Geopolitcs with China involving itself in the Ukraine more loudly and the US warning against weapons deliveries. 

 The ISM surveys will be key to watch for further direction, with the manufacturing survey out on Wednesday and services out on Friday, there are also at least six Federal Reserve policy makers on the speaking diary this week.

Today Ursula von der Leyen and Rishi Sunak are meeting today to resolve the Northern Ireland conflict.

 

Berkshire Hathaway reported its highest-ever annual operating profit.

Trade safely`

Monday:

Data: JP Leading Indicator, EU Consumer Confidence, US Durable Goods Orders

Earnings:   Occidental Petroleum Workday Inc Woodside Energy

Tuesday

Data: JP Industrial Orders, Retail Sales, France GDP, CPI, Switzerland Kof Indicator and Official Reserves, US Consumer Confidence, Canada GDP, Australia PMI

Earnings:   Target Bayer Bank of Montreal Bank of Nova Scotia Sempra Energy Ross Stores Monster Beverage Agilent Technologies Agilent Technologies AutoZone

Wednesday:

Data: Interational PMI, Germany CPI

Earnings:   Royal Bank of Canada Budweiser Salesforce Snowake Lowe's Reckitt Benckiser  Anheuser-Busch

Thursday

Data: EU HICP, Employment

Earnings Merck Hapag-Lloyd Haleon Toronto-Dominion Costco Broadcom VMware  Universal Music Marvell London Stock Exchange

Friday

Data: International PMI, ISM Services

Earnings:   Canadian Natural Resources

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures

HGH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

KEH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

RRH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

SIH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

SILH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

TNH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

UBH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

XKH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

XWH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

Z3NH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZBH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZCH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZFH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZLH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZMH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZNH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZOH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZSH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZTH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZWH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

HOH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

LBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

LBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

RBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

SBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

 

Expiring CFDs

CHINA50FEB23 will expire 27 Feb 2023

HK50FEB23 will expire 27 Feb 2023

SINGAPOREFEB23 will expire 27 Feb 2023

OILUKAPR23 will expire 28 Feb 2023

 

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