Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Will rates rise even more?
Good Morning,
Higher than feared PCE data on Friday caused a significant shift in rare expectations, we are now at a 25% probability of a 50 basis point hike on March 22. 2 year yields are approaching 5% at currently 4.85%. The Peak rate this year is being traded at 5.4% This strengthened the USD and weighed on Equities. Last week the Dow lost 2.99%, the S&P 2.66%, and the Nasdaq 3.33%. the USD Index completed it`s 4th week of gains to currently trade at 105.30 (106.40 is the next interesting level) EURUSD is trading at 1.0540, GBPUSD 1.1940 and USDJPY 136.25. Gold and Silver continued their decline and are at 1808 and 20.65. Silver has broken he 200d MA and could test the important Fibonacci line at 20.20.
Watch Expiries today.
This week will be driven by ISM Data, International PMI, Fed speakers and not least Geopolitcs with China involving itself in the Ukraine more loudly and the US warning against weapons deliveries.
The ISM surveys will be key to watch for further direction, with the manufacturing survey out on Wednesday and services out on Friday, there are also at least six Federal Reserve policy makers on the speaking diary this week.
Today Ursula von der Leyen and Rishi Sunak are meeting today to resolve the Northern Ireland conflict.
Berkshire Hathaway reported its highest-ever annual operating profit.
Trade safely`
Monday:
Data: JP Leading Indicator, EU Consumer Confidence, US Durable Goods Orders
Earnings: Occidental Petroleum Workday Inc Woodside Energy
Tuesday
Data: JP Industrial Orders, Retail Sales, France GDP, CPI, Switzerland Kof Indicator and Official Reserves, US Consumer Confidence, Canada GDP, Australia PMI
Earnings: Target Bayer Bank of Montreal Bank of Nova Scotia Sempra Energy Ross Stores Monster Beverage Agilent Technologies Agilent Technologies AutoZone
Wednesday:
Data: Interational PMI, Germany CPI
Earnings: Royal Bank of Canada Budweiser Salesforce Snowake Lowe's Reckitt Benckiser Anheuser-Busch
Thursday
Data: EU HICP, Employment
Earnings Merck Hapag-Lloyd Haleon Toronto-Dominion Costco Broadcom VMware Universal Music Marvell London Stock Exchange
Friday
Data: International PMI, ISM Services
Earnings: Canadian Natural Resources
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
HGH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
KEH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
RRH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
SIH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
SILH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
TNH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
UBH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
XKH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
XWH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
Z3NH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZBH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZCH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZFH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZLH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZMH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZNH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZOH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZSH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZTH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
ZWH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023
HOH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023
LBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023
LBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023
RBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023
SBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023
Expiring CFDs
CHINA50FEB23 will expire 27 Feb 2023
HK50FEB23 will expire 27 Feb 2023
SINGAPOREFEB23 will expire 27 Feb 2023
OILUKAPR23 will expire 28 Feb 2023
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.