Log in Open account
Switzerland
Leveraged products (e.g., CFDs, Forex (FX) including crypto/fiat, options) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 61% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. 0.90% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop-out occurred. 
Show more
Leveraged products (e.g., CFDs, Forex (FX) including crypto/fiat, options) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 61% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. 0.90% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop-out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Show less
Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 27 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Will rates rise even more?

Good Morning,

Higher than feared PCE data on Friday caused a significant shift in rare expectations, we are now at a 25% probability of a 50 basis point hike on March 22. 2 year yields are approaching 5% at currently 4.85%.  The Peak rate this year is being traded at 5.4% This strengthened the USD and weighed on Equities.  Last week the Dow lost 2.99%, the S&P 2.66%, and the Nasdaq 3.33%. the USD Index completed it`s 4th week of gains to currently trade at 105.30 (106.40 is the next interesting level) EURUSD is trading at 1.0540,  GBPUSD 1.1940 and USDJPY   136.25. Gold and Silver continued their decline and are at 1808 and 20.65. Silver has broken he 200d MA and could test the important Fibonacci line at 20.20.

Watch Expiries today.

This week will be driven by ISM Data, International PMI, Fed speakers and not least Geopolitcs with China involving itself in the Ukraine more loudly and the US warning against weapons deliveries. 

 The ISM surveys will be key to watch for further direction, with the manufacturing survey out on Wednesday and services out on Friday, there are also at least six Federal Reserve policy makers on the speaking diary this week.

Today Ursula von der Leyen and Rishi Sunak are meeting today to resolve the Northern Ireland conflict.

 

Berkshire Hathaway reported its highest-ever annual operating profit.

Trade safely`

Monday:

Data: JP Leading Indicator, EU Consumer Confidence, US Durable Goods Orders

Earnings:   Occidental Petroleum Workday Inc Woodside Energy

Tuesday

Data: JP Industrial Orders, Retail Sales, France GDP, CPI, Switzerland Kof Indicator and Official Reserves, US Consumer Confidence, Canada GDP, Australia PMI

Earnings:   Target Bayer Bank of Montreal Bank of Nova Scotia Sempra Energy Ross Stores Monster Beverage Agilent Technologies Agilent Technologies AutoZone

Wednesday:

Data: Interational PMI, Germany CPI

Earnings:   Royal Bank of Canada Budweiser Salesforce Snowake Lowe's Reckitt Benckiser  Anheuser-Busch

Thursday

Data: EU HICP, Employment

Earnings Merck Hapag-Lloyd Haleon Toronto-Dominion Costco Broadcom VMware  Universal Music Marvell London Stock Exchange

Friday

Data: International PMI, ISM Services

Earnings:   Canadian Natural Resources

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures

HGH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

KEH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

RRH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

SIH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

SILH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

TNH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

UBH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

XKH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

XWH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

Z3NH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZBH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZCH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZFH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZLH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZMH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZNH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZOH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZSH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZTH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

ZWH3 will expire 27 Feb 2023

HOH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

LBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

LBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

RBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

SBH3 will expire 28 Feb 2023

 

Expiring CFDs

CHINA50FEB23 will expire 27 Feb 2023

HK50FEB23 will expire 27 Feb 2023

SINGAPOREFEB23 will expire 27 Feb 2023

OILUKAPR23 will expire 28 Feb 2023

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
    Read full article
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Read full article
  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
    Read full article
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
    Read full article
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read full article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
    Read full article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
    Read full article
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
    Read full article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
    Read full article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...
    Read full article

Disclaimer

 The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. Please ensure you consult our Risk Warning before you start trading and you understand the risks.

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.