Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Mild Western Response Calms Markets
Good Morning,
Markets stabilized yesterday after western sanctions against Russia came less severe than feared and the initial sell of was taken as an opportunity to buy the dip. US Equities closed green with the Dow up 0.3%, S&P 500 up 1.5%, Nasdaq up 3.3%. Over night they are giving up some of the gains again, futures are a little more than 0.5% below the close. Dax traded as low as 13800 yesterday but could recover along with US Indexes and is currently at 14250.
Sanctions so far do not exclude Russia from the SWIFT system or prohibit natural gas sales completely.
EURUSD is at 1.1200 and GBPUSD at 1.3414, Bitcoin could recover from 34k to 38k again.
Gold rose to a high of 1973 and Silver hit 25.60 before retreating to currently 19149 and 24.46,
Oil traded as high as 100 yesterday and retreated to 95.
Today all eyes will be focused on developments in Ukraine and western reactions. Trade carefully and balance risk reward. Any comments on of central banks on the war, it`s impact on inflation and their view will be watched closely.
In the afternoon we are expecting expiries in many futures contracts, pls monitor your positions.
Comment by Althea on Fixed Income:
The bond market is signaling that the recent invasion of Ukraine will bring higher inflation and slower growth, increasing stagflation probabilities. Meanwhile, the cost to insure Russian bonds has risen to the highest since the 2008 global financial crisis, weighing on emerging markets' cost of funding, particularly in hard currency. Escalation of tensions in Eastern Europe challenges the corporate bond space on both sides of the Atlantic as credit spreads widen to the highest level since the 2020 pandemic.
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
STFH2 will expire 25th February at 02:00 GMT.
EMAH2 will expire 25th February at 10:00 GMT.
HGH2, KEH2, RRH2, SIH2, SILH2, TNH2, UBH2, XCH2, XKH2, XWH2, ZBH2, ZCH2, ZFH2, ZLH2, ZMH2, ZNH2, ZSH2, ZTH2, ZWH2 will expire 25th February at 16:00 GMT.
Key Events this Week:
Friday: German GDP, EU Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders
Earnings:Friday: BASF
Saturday: Berkershire Hathaway.
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach