Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 25 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Mild Western Response Calms Markets

Good Morning,

Markets stabilized yesterday after western sanctions against Russia came less severe than feared and the initial sell of was taken as an opportunity to buy the dip. US Equities closed green with the Dow up 0.3%, S&P 500 up 1.5%, Nasdaq up 3.3%. Over night they are giving up some of the gains again, futures are a little more than 0.5% below the close. Dax traded as low as 13800 yesterday but could recover along with US Indexes and is currently at 14250.

Sanctions so far do not exclude Russia from the SWIFT system or prohibit natural gas sales completely.

EURUSD is at 1.1200 and GBPUSD at 1.3414, Bitcoin could recover from 34k to 38k again.

Gold rose to a high of 1973 and Silver hit 25.60 before retreating to currently 19149 and 24.46,

Oil traded as high as 100 yesterday and retreated to 95.

Today all eyes will be focused on developments in Ukraine and western reactions. Trade carefully and balance risk reward. Any comments on of central banks on the war, it`s impact on inflation and their view will be watched closely.

In the afternoon we are expecting expiries in many futures contracts, pls monitor your positions.

Comment by Althea on Fixed Income:

The bond market is signaling that the recent invasion of Ukraine will bring higher inflation and slower growth, increasing stagflation probabilities. Meanwhile, the cost to insure Russian bonds has risen to the highest since the 2008 global financial crisis, weighing on emerging markets' cost of funding, particularly in hard currency. Escalation of tensions in Eastern Europe challenges the corporate bond space on both sides of the Atlantic as credit spreads widen to the highest level since the 2020 pandemic.


Physically Settled Futures:

STFH2 will expire 25th February at 02:00 GMT.

EMAH2 will expire 25th February at 10:00 GMT.

HGH2, KEH2, RRH2, SIH2, SILH2, TNH2, UBH2, XCH2, XKH2, XWH2, ZBH2, ZCH2, ZFH2, ZLH2, ZMH2, ZNH2, ZSH2, ZTH2, ZWH2 will expire 25th February at 16:00 GMT.

Key Events this Week:

Friday: German GDP, EU Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders

Earnings:Friday: BASF 
Saturday: Berkershire Hathaway.



The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.