Morning Brew February 22 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Ukraine Escalation Drives Risk Off Sentiment
Vladimir Putin on Monday formally recognized two regions in eastern Ukraine and ordered troops to enter them, Reuters reports tanks moving into Donezk. The US said to be imposing sanctions on Russia for” this clear violation of international law and Ukraine sovereignty and territorial integrity," Linda Thomas-Greenfield, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, stated.
Risk off sentiment is the key sentiment with Indexes falling severely. Dax drops to 14450, the Nasdaq below 14k at 13700 , the US500 4280 and the Dow to 33600.
Gold and Silver gain to 1911 and 24.20, EURCHF falls to 1.0350 and the yen also gains.
Ruble falls to 80 and Russian stocks drop on the expectation of sanctions if not war, Oil gains app. 2%, the Dutch TTF Gas contract adds more than 10%.
EURUSD drops to 1.1290, GBPUSD to 1.3580. Bitcoin falls to 36600
Besides the Ukraine, the key piece of news yesterday was the German producer price at 214.2%, the highest since the inception of the D-Mark
Be extremely cautious today the market is likely to move fast on any news either direction. We can also soon expect comments out oaf central banks on any measures to calm markets or price reactions on the back of the Ukraine conflict.
Physically Settled Futures:
RCH2 will expire 22nd February at 10:00 GMT
CLH2 will expire 22nd February at 16:00 GMT
CGBH2 will expire 24th February at 16:00 GMT
NATGASUSMAR22 will expire 22nd February at 16:00 GMT
SUGARNYMAR22 will expire 24th February at 16:00 GMT
Key Events this Week:
Tuesday: German IFO, US PMI
Wednesday: EU HICP
Thursday: US GDP New Home Sales
Friday: German GDP, EU Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders
Tuesday: HSBC, Home Depot
Wednesday: Rio Tinto, Iberdrola, Stellantis
Thursday: Safran, Anheuser Bush Inbev, Axa, Deutsche Telekom, Royal Bank oc Canada. Alibaba, Moderna, Newmont Mining
Saturday: Berkershire Hathaway.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.