Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew December 7 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Markets in recovery mode across the board


Good morning,

Equities were strong yesterday on easing corona worries, but there was quite a divergence. Leisure and travel shares gained (Norwegian Cruise up 9.5%) while Moderna and Pfizer lost (13.5% and 5%) The Dow closed up Dow 1.87%, the S&P 500 gained 1.17% and the Nasdaq 0.93%. Currently Dax and Eurostoxx futures trade 0.5% above yesterdays close at 15475 and 4164.

Long term yields in the US rise, the 30 year trades at 1.78, but the FX market seem to be  widely immune to the move. EURUSD trades at 1.1290 and GBPUSD at 1.3280, EURUSD is rangebound between 1.1200 and 1.1400, Cable`s support is around 1.3200. Vols remain somewhat elevated, the EUR 1 Month is trading at 6.37 up from 4.8 a month ago. The USD index falls slightly to 96.25.

Gold and Silver remain locked in place at 1780 and 22.45 and Bitcoin made it back above the 50k but has quite some distance to go if it wants to honor the 100k year end calls. Gold needs to break above the 1810 for any real upside potential.

Oil can recover to 70.50 from 62.50 on Thursday.

The future on carbon emission(CFIZ2 continues to rise and is now up app. 150% this year at 81.65.

According to reports, some holders of Evergrande bonds did not receive their coupons, a sign the Chinese Real estate market may come back to haunt us. 

Looking forward, there are few economic releases on todays agenda, at 11:00 cet we expect the revised EU GDP (at 3.7%) and the German ZEW (25.1) at 14:30 US Labor costs expected at 8.3% and the US international trade at -66.8 billion.

Next to the economic data there are three key factors to keep an eye on. Tension between the US ands China remains high with the US announcing a diplomatic boycott of the Olympic Winter Games. Also Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin will hold a Video conference where the subject will be a Russian Attack on Ukraine. Lastly, Corona remains in focus and any hints that Omicron is more dangerous than currently thought could have significant impact.

Trade safely!

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.