Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: 200 Day Averages broken, NonFarm Key event today.
Good Morning,
After Powell`s fairly dovish speech, risk on sentiment remains firmly anchored even if we gave up some ground yesterday. The US 500 lost 0.1% yesterday, the Nasdaq gained 0.13% and the Dow lost 0.56%. Top movers were Salesforce (-8.3%), Dollar General (-7.5%).
The Nasdaq is still down 27% on the year and the US 500 14% for the year but the S&P has breached above the 200 day moving average, a technically bullish sign. The Vix trades at the lowest level since August, at just below 20. The swings are huge overall, Nvidia hit a low at 110 USD less than 2 months ago and is now 60 USD higher. If this move continues, we are in for quite a year end but remain on your toes and keep risk management in place.
The USD Index has lost 2.5 Points off the high this week, now trading at 104.65, GBPUSD is trading at 1.2235 and EURUSD has broken above the 200 day MA and trades 1.0530. 1.0750 is the next key level if continue higher. USDJPY is at 135, after hitting 152 this quarter. Gold and Silver gained to currently 1800 and 22.85, both having breached the 200 d MA as well.
Ten year yields for the USD are trading at 3.55, 0.8% lower than in October.
Today`s labor data will be closely watched for the next impulse, first, at 11 we are expecting the EU Producer Prices and at 14:30 the key US data, the Nonfarm Payroll is expected at 200k added jobs, the unemployment rate at 3.7% and average earnings at an increase of 0.3%.
On Monday, international PMI are the most important event.
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Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy