Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew August 23 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Is the virtual Jackson Hole meet a dovish sign?


Good Morning,

Even Main Stream Media are looking at the Jackson Hole conference for a paradigm shift in the markets - it is expected the plan to end of QE will be laid out and monetary policy may become tighter.

The hosting Kansas City Fed announced on Friday, the annual economic symposium would be held virtually and not in person as planned. This may be a hint at a more dovish stance, the fact that the central bankers do not meet in person gives the opportunity to put focus on the danger of the delta variant. As Jerome Powell`s position is up for confirmation and Joe Biden finds himself under severe pressure for the mess in Afghanistan, the last both need is market turmoil.The  full agenda will be available at http://www.KansasCityFed.org on the 27th in the  morning in Europe 

Equities traded friendly on Friday with the Dow up 0.65%, the S&P up 0.81 and the Nasdaq 1.19%, over the weekend the positive mood continues and most Futures are friendly. Cause for the positive sentiment seems to be that China has reported no additional new COVID Cases. The USD Index fell from 93.73 on Friday to 93.30. EURUSD is trading 55 pips off Fridays lows at 1.1715 and Gold and silver are at 1785 and 23.22. Speculators cut their USD Longs on the CME in the week to the 17th seeing he move towards a stronger USD as complete is seems.

Bitcoin rose 5 % on Friday and continues to break the 50k level over the weekend.

Nvidia Corp's planned $40 billion acquisition of British chip designer ARM hit a major hurdle on Friday

I expect  the trading focus this week to be firmly on Jackson hole and other events taking a second row seat, unless there are any strong surprises. Today Global PMI can be important.

It might be a good opportunity to take a look at your portfolio and check how happy you are with the level of risk you are running going in to one of the key monetary policy weeks this year. As stated above, I can well imagine the fed can be more hawkish than expected but it never hurts to take a critical look at your positions and consider what would happen if you are wrong

 

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

23 Aug 2021

09:15

France

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Aug

57.3

23 Aug 2021

09:15

France

Markit Serv Flash PMI

Aug

57.0

23 Aug 2021

09:15

France

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Aug

56.5

23 Aug 2021

09:30

Germany

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Aug

65.0

23 Aug 2021

09:30

Germany

Markit Service Flash PMI

Aug

61.0

23 Aug 2021

09:30

Germany

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Aug

62.2

23 Aug 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Aug

62.0

23 Aug 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Serv Flash PMI

Aug

59.8

23 Aug 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Aug

59.7

23 Aug 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Flash Composite PMI

Aug

58.4

23 Aug 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Aug

59.5

23 Aug 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Flash Services PMI

Aug

59.0

23 Aug 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Aug

58.3

23 Aug 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Mfg PMI Flash

Aug

62.8

23 Aug 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Svcs PMI Flash

Aug

59.4

23 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

Existing Home Sales

Jul

5.81M

23 Aug 2021

16:00

Euro Zone

Consumer Confid. Flash

Aug

-5.0

24 Aug 2021

08:00

Germany

GDP Detailed QQ SA

Q2

1.5%

24 Aug 2021

08:00

Germany

GDP Detailed YY NSA

Q2

9.6%

24 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

New Home Sales-Units

Jul

0.690M

25 Aug 2021

10:00

Germany

Ifo Business Climate New

Aug

100.4

25 Aug 2021

10:00

Germany

Ifo Curr Conditions New

Aug

100.8

25 Aug 2021

10:00

Germany

Ifo Expectations New

Aug

100.0

25 Aug 2021

14:00

Brazil

IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI

Aug

0.82%

25 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Durable Goods

Jul

-0.2%

26 Aug 2021

03:00

South Korea

Bank of Korea Base Rate

Aug

26 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Capital Expenditure

Q2

2.5%

26 Aug 2021

08:45

France

Business Climate Mfg

Aug

109

26 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

GDP 2nd Estimate

Q2

6.7%

26 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

21 Aug, w/e

350k

27 Aug 2021

01:30

Japan

CPI, Overall Tokyo

Aug

27 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Retail Sales MM

Jul

-2.9%

27 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

MM

Jul

0.3%

27 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

U Mich Sentiment Final

Aug

70.9

(Refinitiv)

 

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