Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew August 23 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Is the virtual Jackson Hole meet a dovish sign?


Good Morning,

Even Main Stream Media are looking at the Jackson Hole conference for a paradigm shift in the markets - it is expected the plan to end of QE will be laid out and monetary policy may become tighter.

The hosting Kansas City Fed announced on Friday, the annual economic symposium would be held virtually and not in person as planned. This may be a hint at a more dovish stance, the fact that the central bankers do not meet in person gives the opportunity to put focus on the danger of the delta variant. As Jerome Powell`s position is up for confirmation and Joe Biden finds himself under severe pressure for the mess in Afghanistan, the last both need is market turmoil.The  full agenda will be available at http://www.KansasCityFed.org on the 27th in the  morning in Europe 

Equities traded friendly on Friday with the Dow up 0.65%, the S&P up 0.81 and the Nasdaq 1.19%, over the weekend the positive mood continues and most Futures are friendly. Cause for the positive sentiment seems to be that China has reported no additional new COVID Cases. The USD Index fell from 93.73 on Friday to 93.30. EURUSD is trading 55 pips off Fridays lows at 1.1715 and Gold and silver are at 1785 and 23.22. Speculators cut their USD Longs on the CME in the week to the 17th seeing he move towards a stronger USD as complete is seems.

Bitcoin rose 5 % on Friday and continues to break the 50k level over the weekend.

Nvidia Corp's planned $40 billion acquisition of British chip designer ARM hit a major hurdle on Friday

I expect  the trading focus this week to be firmly on Jackson hole and other events taking a second row seat, unless there are any strong surprises. Today Global PMI can be important.

It might be a good opportunity to take a look at your portfolio and check how happy you are with the level of risk you are running going in to one of the key monetary policy weeks this year. As stated above, I can well imagine the fed can be more hawkish than expected but it never hurts to take a critical look at your positions and consider what would happen if you are wrong

 

Local Start Date

Local Time

Country/Region

Indicator Name

Period

Reuters Poll

23 Aug 2021

09:15

France

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Aug

57.3

23 Aug 2021

09:15

France

Markit Serv Flash PMI

Aug

57.0

23 Aug 2021

09:15

France

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Aug

56.5

23 Aug 2021

09:30

Germany

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Aug

65.0

23 Aug 2021

09:30

Germany

Markit Service Flash PMI

Aug

61.0

23 Aug 2021

09:30

Germany

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Aug

62.2

23 Aug 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Mfg Flash PMI

Aug

62.0

23 Aug 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Serv Flash PMI

Aug

59.8

23 Aug 2021

10:00

Euro Zone

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Aug

59.7

23 Aug 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Flash Composite PMI

Aug

58.4

23 Aug 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Flash Manufacturing PMI

Aug

59.5

23 Aug 2021

10:30

United Kingdom

Flash Services PMI

Aug

59.0

23 Aug 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Comp Flash PMI

Aug

58.3

23 Aug 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Mfg PMI Flash

Aug

62.8

23 Aug 2021

15:45

United States

Markit Svcs PMI Flash

Aug

59.4

23 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

Existing Home Sales

Jul

5.81M

23 Aug 2021

16:00

Euro Zone

Consumer Confid. Flash

Aug

-5.0

24 Aug 2021

08:00

Germany

GDP Detailed QQ SA

Q2

1.5%

24 Aug 2021

08:00

Germany

GDP Detailed YY NSA

Q2

9.6%

24 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

New Home Sales-Units

Jul

0.690M

25 Aug 2021

10:00

Germany

Ifo Business Climate New

Aug

100.4

25 Aug 2021

10:00

Germany

Ifo Curr Conditions New

Aug

100.8

25 Aug 2021

10:00

Germany

Ifo Expectations New

Aug

100.0

25 Aug 2021

14:00

Brazil

IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI

Aug

0.82%

25 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Durable Goods

Jul

-0.2%

26 Aug 2021

03:00

South Korea

Bank of Korea Base Rate

Aug

26 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Capital Expenditure

Q2

2.5%

26 Aug 2021

08:45

France

Business Climate Mfg

Aug

109

26 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

GDP 2nd Estimate

Q2

6.7%

26 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

Initial Jobless Clm

21 Aug, w/e

350k

27 Aug 2021

01:30

Japan

CPI, Overall Tokyo

Aug

27 Aug 2021

03:30

Australia

Retail Sales MM

Jul

-2.9%

27 Aug 2021

14:30

United States

MM

Jul

0.3%

27 Aug 2021

16:00

United States

U Mich Sentiment Final

Aug

70.9

(Refinitiv)

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.