Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Morning BrewAugust 18 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: USD Gains on New Zealand Lockdown
Good Morning,
After disappointing retail sales, Wallstreet actually had a down day with all three indexes closing lower. Retail sales were releases at -1.1 vs -0.3% expected. Industrial Production could surprise to the upside though.
The USD gained significantly but is seems the cause was more covid fears and flight to safety than the rate outlook. EURUSD traded at 1.1701, a new year’s low and the USD Index gained to 93.10, the years high is 93.43. The Kiwi came under pressure after a 4 day lockdown was put in place and the central bank delayed a rate hike. Corona cases in China slide, giving some support to Asian shares.
Gold, Silver and Bitcoin were quite resilient, only suffering minor losses at the end of the day. At the moment Gold trades 1789, Silver 23.76 and Bitcoin 45320. EURUSD is at 1.1715 and GBPUSD 1.3740. NZDUSD fell to 0.6925 after 0.70 only yesterday morning. Gold needs a close above 1800 and Silver 24 for any further relief.
The agenda of economic events is fairly empty of really major events, Corona and any comments ahead of Jackson Hole should be key, Nvidia will report numbers after the bell.
Local Start Date | Local Time | Country/Region | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | CPI YY | Jul | 2.3% |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | RPI YY | Jul | 3.7% |
18 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | PPI Input Prices YY NSA | Jul | |
18 Aug 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | HICP Final YY | Jul | 2.2% |
18 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Building Permits: Number | Jul | 1.610M |
18 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI Inflation YY | Jul | 3.4% |
18 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | CPI BoC Core YY | Jul | |
19 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Employment | Jul | -46.2k |
19 Aug 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | Unemployment Rate | Jul | 5.0% |
19 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Norway | Key Policy Rate | 19 Aug | 0.00% |
19 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Initial Jobless Clm | 14 Aug, w/e | 360k |
19 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Cont Jobless Clm | 7 Aug, w/e | 2.800M |
19 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | United States | Philly Fed Business Indx | Aug | 25.0 |
20 Aug 2021 | 01:01 | United Kingdom | GfK Consumer Confidence | Aug | -7 |
20 Aug 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | CPI, Core Nationwide YY | Jul | -0.4% |
20 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | Producer Prices MM | Jul | 0.8% |
20 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | United Kingdom | Retail Sales MM | Jul | 0.5% |
20 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Norway | GDP Growth | Q2 | |
20 Aug 2021 | 14:30 | Canada | Retail Sales MM | Jun | 4.4% |
23 Aug 2021 | 01:00 | Australia | Comp PMI Flash | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 02:30 | Japan | Jibun Bank Mfg PMI Flash | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | Consumer Confidence | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 09:15 | France | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 09:30 | Germany | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 10:00 | Euro Zone | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 10:30 | United Kingdom | Flash Composite PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 12:00 | United Kingdom | CBI Trends - Orders | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Comp Flash PMI | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 15:45 | United States | Markit Mfg PMI Flash | Aug | |
23 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | United States | Existing Home Sales | Jul | 5.85M |
23 Aug 2021 | 16:00 | Euro Zone | Consumer Confid. Flash | Aug | |
(Refinitiv)
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