Morning Brew April 8 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Markets are looking for direction as high yields weigh on risk sentiment and new sanctions hit Russia. Imports of wood and coal are no longer allowed and Ursula von der Leyen is travelling to Ukraine presently.
Mixed comments from central bankers: Bostic and Evans were a little dovish while James Bullard who called for hikes totaling to 3% this year.
Equities could stabilize a little over night but if there is no real surprise today we are looking at a negative week. US 30 is trading at 34600 the US500 at 4500, the USTech100 at 14560 and the GER40 at 14160
Bitcoin fell to 43500 despite Robin hood announcing access to crypto currencies for 2 million users.
US 10 year yields remain near the high at 2.66 and the USD Index is approaching the 100. Gold and Silver remain in their range at 1930 and 24.60, EURUSD trades below 1.09 still at 1.0860, GBPUSD 1.3065 and USDJPY is toying with the 124 at 123.97 The Bund Future is near the years lows at currently 156.97 UK Oil is trading at 100.80.
Tesla closed at 1056 and Nvidia 241.
It is feared that Russia is preparing an offensive in Ukraine so there is little hope of peace and there might be a consensus for tougher sanctions on Russian energy. The United Nations General Assembly suspended Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council
We saw a huge increase in consumer credit yesterday, the expectation was 16 bio and the actual 42 bio.
Today the economic agenda is thin, with Norways GDP at 8, the Greek CPI at 11, Canada`s employment date at 14:30 and US wholesale inventories at 16:00
We still have huge amounts of cash on the sidelines looking to be invested, this could cause a rebound in equities if there are no negative surprises but that is not unlikely to happen in the current environment. Caution remains in order in my view, consider optionality.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.