Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning BrewApril 5 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  USD Weaker into Easter


Good Morning,

The next Morning Brew will be on April 13th due to holidays.

The lesson yesterday was never to predict a quiet day...

Normally the JOLTS Job Opening Numbers are no something with a huge market impact,  but... Yesterdays report showed 9.9 mio open positions vs 10.4 mio expected. This caused an interesting market reaction with initially letting interest rates fall, which in turn caused the the US dollar to drop and technical levels were breached, amplifying the reaction. The 2 year rate fell to below 4% and is now 3.9%, the probability of a further hike at the next FOMC is at 50/50.

Most interesting is that the despite Powell’s insistence the Fed would not lower rates in the near future, traders are fully pricing in cuts by 60 basis points in December.

The reaction was especially strong in precious metals where Silver gained more than a full dollar to trade near 25 and gold broke above the psychologically important 2000 level and is at 2020. The next significant levels would be 25.50/70 and 2065.

The USD Index fell to 101.60, EURUSD is at 1.0960, GBPUSD at 1.2485 and USDJPY 131.60. Bitcoin rose to 28500.

Equities gave up some ground yesterday as recession worries took precedence over lower rates. All three US Indexes lost app 0.5% and the usual culprits moved relatively little compared to recent swings. Tesla fell 1.45%, Amazon gained 0.8%, Nvidia fell 1% and Apple 0.1%. Volumes show the upcoming holiday at 20% below the one month average.

As tomorrow, holidays start in several countries, expect lower liquidity than usual and possibly very sharp moves. This is especially true for Friday afternoon when the Non Farm Payroll is released on Good Friday, often taking the market by surprise and hitting extremely low liquidity. The expectation is for 240k a, the unemployment rate at 3.6% and average earnings +0.3%.

Headlines:

UBS holds their shareholder meeting a day after that of Credit Suisse

Donald Trump was charged with 34 felony counts yesterday but there was less turmoil than feared.

Samsung is releasing Q1 results Friday and Analysts see a 90% decline in profits.

Trade Safely.

Economic Data

Wednesday
International PMI

German Industrial OrdersThursday:

German Industrial Output
Swiss FX reserves
US Jobs data

Friday:

 Good Friday
Non Farm Payrolls

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.