Morning Brew April 4 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: The calm before the storm?
The EU is considering stronger sanctions against Russia on accusations of war crimes and even German politicians are starting to demand an import stop for Russian gas. So far markets are not really reacting. Oil only gains minutely and Equities start the week on a friendly note overall – but gains are only insignificant so far.
The GER40 is trading at 14544 ant the 50 day moving average is the next key resistance at 14624, the US30 34865 and needs to breach the 35k, US500 is somewhat mid range at 4555 an the USTech 100 also in undecided territory at 14882,
EURUSD is off recent highs at 1.1040 with still falling implied Vol, GBPUSD 1.3120 and Gold and Silver looking for clues at 1921 and 24.77.
Bitcoin is hovering below the 47k.
Inflation is becoming a tabloid subject in Germany with Bild publishing lists of price increases at Aldi and publishing tips on how to cook cheaper. This will cause significant pressure on the government to try to influence the ECB.
In the US the 2710 year yield curve has inverted, usually a sign of a recession and the Fed Minutes on Wednesday will be closely watched in that background.
China is showing some flexibility towards US transparency requirements as it is considering to adapt confidentiality rules that would allow Chinese Companies to comply with US reporting requirements.
Amazons new union will start tariff negotiations in May.
Tesla reported record Q1 deliveries but is so far not able to relaunch production in it`s Shanghai factory.
Today we are watching for News arround EU Sanctions and any hint of an energy boycott against Russia, comments on the inverted US Yield cuve by central bankers and in terms of economic data the Turkish CPI at 9, EU Sentix index at 10:30 and US Factory Orders at 16:00
Tomorrow there will be a flurry of international PMIs with EU at 10 and US at 15:45 key.
Physically Settled Futures:
WK2 will expire 6th April at 09:00 GMT
FPJ2 will expire 11th April at 15:00 GMT
GASOILUKAPR22 will expire 8th April at 15:00 GMT
LEANHOGSAPR22 will expire 12th April at 15:00 GMT
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.