Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: A bad day for Risk - relief today?
Good Morning,
It was a horrible day for stocks as Nasdaq has the worst day since 2020 and loses 3.9%. The S&P 500 looses 2.8% and the Dow 2.4%.
There was a flurry of bad news starting with Tesla falling on worries that Elon Musk may have to sell parts of his holding to pay for the Twitter purchase, sending the stock down 12% and weighing risk sentiment. The FAANG stocks all fell more than 3%, Amazon 4.5 and Nvidia 5.6%.
Russia announced to halt Natgas deliveries to Poland and Bulgaria - just now reports come in that service is renewed though, Poland has announced to deliver tanks to Ukraine, Germany has decided to provide heavy weapons after long wavering.
China is testing for Covid in Beijing and there are fears there could be a similar lockdown to Shanghai if there are high case numbers.
After the Bell, Google slightly missed expectations on lower add sales attributed to the Ukraine war while Microsoft could exceed them.
Credit Suisse posted a loss of 273 million Swiss franc, Deutsche Bank exceeds expectations
Earnings today are Meta, Boeing, Spotify, Ford, Paypal, T-Mobile before the big day tomorrow with Twitter, Amazon, Apple Intel, Mastercard Robinhood, McDonalds, Gilead
In the FX markets, volatility is back with the EURUSD 1 month at 9%, EURUSD is at a 2 year low, 1.0650 and 1.0580, 1.05 and 1.0350 are worth having an eye on. The USD Index is looking to test the 2020 high above 103. GBPUSD fell below 1.26. The Aussie was bested by the highest inflation number in 20 years, good for a jump from 0.7130 to 0.7180.
Gold and Silver held up well given the USD strength and are trading at 1899 and 23.55, Bitcoin fell to 38500.
Oil is supported by worries on deliveries in Ukraine and hopes on Chinese stimulus and Trafigura Group will stop all purchases of crude oil Rosneft by May 15.
As there is little economic data out today, except for he German Consumer sentiment at 8, I would expect the traders focus to be on Oil,, Ukraine and China as well as earnings numbers
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.