Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew July 27 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Looking for the "Next Big Thing"


Good Morning,

My colleagues summarized the current trading and investment environment best titling yesterday’s Podcast If you’re not confused, you’re not paying attention.

Every clear signal that appears seems to be nullified shortly thereafter. Yesterday we saw precious metals under pressure, indicating the start of a bearish trend, then a sharp reversal brought Gold to close above the key support and Silver to 25 again. Equities sold off sharply on a weak outlook by UPS caused it`s shares to drop by 10%. Indexes lost: Dow 1.02%, the S&P 1.58% and the  Nasdaq 1.98%. After the bell, strong results by Microsoft and decent ones and a stock buyback of Alphabet caused Equities to bounce off the lows, Microsoft shares rose 8% after the bell and Google 2.5%.

US 2 year yields fell below 4% yesterday but the USD Index rose to near 102 despite that, this was mainly caused by EU Yields also dropping and EURUSD to drop from 2.95 to 2.75. EURUSD is at 1.0988, GBPUSD at 1.2425, USDJPY at 133.70 Gold 1996 and Silver 25.00. EURCHF trades at 0.9790.

While USDJPY is currently rangebound, the first meeting under the new governor Ueda is kicking off. No change in rates is expected but focus is on the way he communicates on the one hand and his forward guidance on the other. No Change in rates is traded with a probability of 98%.

US consumer confidence falls to 9-month low in April yesterday while the German one came less horrible than feared at -25.7 vs an expectation of -27.9.

Today there is the US Durable goods orders and Meta Earnings to move the markets unless there is a significant surprise.

Traders as well as Investors continue to look for clues about the next market driver for a clear direction.

Economic Data:

Australia Trade Data,
Sweden Rate Decision
France Unemployment
US Durable Goods

Earnings: Boeing, General Dynamics, Meta, Roku, Enovics,

Thursday

Economic Data:

Sweden GDP,
EU Consumer Confidence
Turkey Rate Decision
US GDP Advance, Initial Jobless claims

Earnings: American Airlines, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Merck ,Amazon, Intel, Pinterest, Gilead, Amgen,

 

Friday

Economic Data:

Swiss KOF
Germany Unemployment, GDP
EU GDP
US PCE, University of Michigan,
Canada GDP

Earnings:

ExxonMobile, Colgate,Cameco,

 

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

Content disclaimer

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Bank A/S and its entities within the Saxo Bank Group provide execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer and notification on non-independent investment research for more details.

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.