Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Due to an event there will be no Morning Brew tomorrow,
Markets remain calm and looking for clues. US Equities fell moderately but recover over night on decent earnings numbers and hopes inflation may have peaked. Our Strats team in Asia wrote a deeper article: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/inflation-stays-top-of-mind-for-investors-21042022
US 10 year yields fell to 2.85 and the USD Index to 100.38, EURUSD 1.0850, GBPUSD 1.3050 and Gold and Silver at 1952 and 25.06. oil rose 1.5% to 103.70 in the CL contract.
The IMF warned a slowdown in China would have global implications but China had room to maneuver.
For the US, a 50 BPS hike seems like a done deal for the FOMC meeting in two weeks, the probability is traded at 97%.
Tesla revenue was USD 18.8 billion in Q1, versus estimates of USD17.8 billion and EPS 3.22 vs 2.26, the stock had fallen 5% in regular trading but could make up the loss after hours.
Nestle beats expectations this morning with an organic sales growth of 7.6& vs 5% expected
Netflix closed 35% lower, Bill Ackman takes a 400 mio loss and exits the position with his fund.
European Inflation Data at 11 will be of importance today, the annual HICP rate is expected at 7.5% and may indicate more pressure on the ECB to take action against inflation.-
Earnings:
Economic data:
Trade Safely!
AI: The good, the bad, and the bubble
While a deep recession may not be iminent thanks to central bank policy, interest rates will have to stay high for longer, and this will be accompanied by volatility risk from the unwinding of bubbles, especially within AI.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
The emergence of advanced AI systems is by far the most surprising event this year, turning everything upside down, while risks and benefits are debated. AI will also become an arms race between the US and China.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
As China navigates global fragmentation, its cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement, and growth is threatened by US breakthroughs in generative AI, limited computing power, and geopolitical tensions.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
Japan’s expertise in semiconductors and robotic integration could be the foundation of AI dominance. Combining two of this year's themes, Japanese equities and artificial intelligence, brings a wave of opportunities.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling, pushing crypto further into no-man’s-land. There are striking similarities between AI and crypto, and if these are to come full circle, AI won't be spared for bubbles.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
Stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) have appeared on investors' radars. Expectations are high, but it may be necessary to consider how to get exposure to AI in a diversified way.
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
The USD is on its back foot as markets celebrate an eventual Fed rate peak and steady long US yields. The stakes are even higher for the Japanese yen if longer major sovereign yield curves have to price in economic acceleration.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
While commodities, broadly speaking, have faced some tough months, a partial reversal during June could signal that the asset class is getting back on its feet with energy holding up and precious metals with upside potential.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As inflation remains high central banks face hard decisions about whether they should keep hiking interest rates or stop. Meanwhile, the rise of AI creates bubble-like conditions that only make the decision harder.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist