Morning Brew April 21 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Due to an event there will be no Morning Brew tomorrow,
Markets remain calm and looking for clues. US Equities fell moderately but recover over night on decent earnings numbers and hopes inflation may have peaked. Our Strats team in Asia wrote a deeper article: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/inflation-stays-top-of-mind-for-investors-21042022
US 10 year yields fell to 2.85 and the USD Index to 100.38, EURUSD 1.0850, GBPUSD 1.3050 and Gold and Silver at 1952 and 25.06. oil rose 1.5% to 103.70 in the CL contract.
The IMF warned a slowdown in China would have global implications but China had room to maneuver.
For the US, a 50 BPS hike seems like a done deal for the FOMC meeting in two weeks, the probability is traded at 97%.
Tesla revenue was USD 18.8 billion in Q1, versus estimates of USD17.8 billion and EPS 3.22 vs 2.26, the stock had fallen 5% in regular trading but could make up the loss after hours.
Nestle beats expectations this morning with an organic sales growth of 7.6& vs 5% expected
Netflix closed 35% lower, Bill Ackman takes a 400 mio loss and exits the position with his fund.
European Inflation Data at 11 will be of importance today, the annual HICP rate is expected at 7.5% and may indicate more pressure on the ECB to take action against inflation.-
- Thursday: American Airlines, Snap, AT&T
- Friday: Amex, Verizon, SAP, Schlumberger
- Thursday: EU HICP at 11, US Labor Data at 14:30
- Friday: UK CPI at 8:00, International PMI
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.