Erik Erik Erik

Morning Brew June 9 2022

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Good Morning,

All eyes will be on the European Central Bank today where a rate hike would still be a surprise but it is expected that it will shut down QE and advise on rising rates. The Press conference at 14:30 can easily be more important than announcement at 13:45.

Our economist Christopher Dembik states:

The eurozone CPI topped 8 % year-over-year in May – the highest on record - and the eurozone HICP, which is highly watched by the ECB, reached a new high of 3.8 % in May (with core goods at 4.2 % and services at 3.5 %). This is uncomfortably high. In these conditions, Lagarde has little choice but to deliver an hawkish message this week – meaning higher rates and a stronger euro. The next data to look at closely will be the first estimate of the June eurozone HICP on July 1. ECB hawks might be vocal in favor of a fast tightening pace afterwards. While pressure is undeniably building in favor of a 50 basis point move in July, we doubt the ECB will start its hiking cycle with such a big step.

Hi US yields and the lack of good news weighed on equities yesterday, US indexes gave up app 1% as 10 year yields held above 3%.

The Dax fell below the 14400 over night and is trading at 14365 at the moment, German 10 Year Yields are 1.36% and the Italian at 3.50.

The USD Index is fairly calm and remains at 102.50 but while EURUSD and GBPUSD can rise to 1.0720 and 1.2525, USDJPY rose to near 134 and traded as high as 134.55. The Turkish Lira continues to fall and is currently at 17.20 lira per USD.

Gold and Silver are little changed again at 1855 and 22.10, Bitcoin holds at 30300.

Chinese Exports massively exceeded expectations at 16.9% vs an expected 8%.

Credit Suisse was one of the most interesting shares yesterday , initially falling app 6% on a likely Q2 loss, after “inside paradeplatz” reported State Street is looking  to take over the company, it rose to close 3.8% higher.

Intel announced a hiring freeze  in the PC Chip division according to a memo as part of a series of cost-cutting measures

The SEC announced it will change regulation to regulate the handling of retail order flow, affecting the current setup of retail brokers like Robin hood and E*Trade.

Overall we seem to be in a holding pattern ahead of key releases, the ECB today, US CPI tomorrow and the US Rate decision next week Wednesday.

Consider Options for speculative bets to limit your risk.

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.