Saxo Bank
Good Morning
Equities continue their recovery, receding inflation worries are being cited as the driver, also the Fed Balance sheet keeps expanding. Several Fed speakers mention that they see rising inflation as transitory and not lasting.
Gold remains stronger than silver with Gold at 1875, near the recent highs and silver at 27.50. the USD Index is near recent lows, 89.66 is the level to watch. Treasury Yields remain under pressure, the 10 year is at 1.6063
Bitcoin has stabilized and remains heavily disputed on social media, currently near 38,000.
Singapore GDP Rose grew 1.3% YoY in the first quarter, vs 0.9% expected
The US says it expects strong backing from the G7 for it`s proposed 15%-plus global minimum corporate tax.
Vonovia is looking to take over Deutsche Wohnen, this would create one of the largest global real estate companies.
German GDP as well as US Consumer Confidence and New Home sales are the key events today.
Economic Events for the next few days:
Date | Time CET | Country/Region | Relevance | Indicator Name | Period | Reuters Poll |
25 May 2021 | 02:00 | Singapore | High | GDP Final YY | Q1 | 0.9% |
25 May 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | High | GDP Detailed QQ SA | Q1 | -1.7% |
25 May 2021 | 08:00 | Germany | High | GDP Detailed YY NSA | Q1 | -3.3% |
25 May 2021 | 09:00 | Indonesia | High | 7-Day Reverse Repo | May | 3.50% |
25 May 2021 | 09:00 | Indonesia | High | Deposit Facility Rate | May | 2.75% |
25 May 2021 | 09:00 | Indonesia | High | Lending Facility Rate | May | 4.25% |
25 May 2021 | 10:00 | Germany | High | Ifo Business Climate New | May | 98.2 |
25 May 2021 | 10:00 | Germany | High | Ifo Curr Conditions New | May | 95.5 |
25 May 2021 | 10:00 | Germany | High | Ifo Expectations New | May | 101.4 |
24 May 2021 | 13:00 | Ghana | High | Prime Interest Rate | May | 14.50% |
25 May 2021 | 14:00 | Brazil | High | IPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI | May | 0.55% |
25 May 2021 | 14:00 | Hungary | High | Hungary Base Rate | May | 0.60% |
25 May 2021 | 14:00 | Hungary | High | O/N Deposit Rate | May | -0.05% |
18 May 2021 | 14:30 | Chile | High | GDP YY | Q1 | 0.5% |
17 May 2021 | 15:00 | Russia | High | Unemployment Rate | Apr | 5.4% |
25 May 2021 | 16:00 | United States | High | Consumer Confidence | May | 119.4 |
25 May 2021 | 16:00 | United States | High | New Home Sales-Units | Apr | 0.970M |
25 May 2021 | 18:00 | Russia | High | Industrial Output | Apr | 6.5% |
24 May 2021 | 18:00 | Nigeria | High | Interest Rate | 25 May | 11.50% |
26 May 2021 | 04:00 | New Zealand | High | Cash Rate | 26 May | 0.25% |
26 May 2021 | 08:45 | France | High | Business Climate Mfg | May | 106 |
26 May 2021 | 15:30 | Kenya | High | Central Bank Rate | May | 7.00% |
27 May 2021 | 03:00 | South Korea | High | Bank of Korea Base Rate | May | 0.50% |
27 May 2021 | 03:30 | Australia | High | Capital Expenditure | Q1 | 2.0% |
27 May 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Durable Goods | Apr | 0.7% |
27 May 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | GDP 2nd Estimate | Q1 | 6.5% |
27 May 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Initial Jobless Clm | 22 May, w/e | 425k |
28 May 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | CPI Tokyo Ex fresh food YY | May | -0.2% |
28 May 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | CPI, Overall Tokyo | May | |
28 May 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | Jobs/Applicants Ratio | Apr | 1.10 |
28 May 2021 | 01:30 | Japan | High | Unemployment Rate | Apr | 2.7% |
28 May 2021 | 08:45 | France | High | GDP QQ Final | Q1 | 0.4% |
28 May 2021 | 08:45 | France | High | GDP QQ Final | Q1 | 0.4% |
28 May 2021 | 08:45 | France | High | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY | May | 1.8% |
28 May 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | High | KOF Indicator | May | 136.0 |
28 May 2021 | 11:00 | Euro Zone | High | Consumer Confid. Final | May | -5.1 |
28 May 2021 | 13:00 | Brazil | High | IGP-M Inflation Index | May | 4.00% |
28 May 2021 | 13:00 | Angola | High | Interest Rate | 31 May | |
28 May 2021 | 14:30 | United States | High | Consumption, Adjusted MM | Apr | 0.5% |
28 May 2021 | 16:00 | United States | High | U Mich Sentiment Final | May | 82.9 |
28 May 2021 | 22:00 | Colombia | High | Interest Rate | May | |
31 May 2021 | 01:50 | Japan | High | Industrial O/P Prelim MM SA | Apr | |
31 May 2021 | 03:00 | China (Mainland) | High | NBS Manufacturing PMI | May | |
31 May 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | High | GDP QQ Prelim | Q1 | |
31 May 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | High | GDP YY Prelim | Q1 | |
31 May 2021 | 08:00 | Denmark | High | Unemployment Rate | Apr | |
31 May 2021 | 09:00 | Turkey | High | GDP Quarterly YY | Q1 | |
31 May 2021 | 09:00 | Switzerland | High | Official Reserves Assets CHF | Apr |
AI: The good, the bad, and the bubble
While a deep recession may not be iminent thanks to central bank policy, interest rates will have to stay high for longer, and this will be accompanied by volatility risk from the unwinding of bubbles, especially within AI.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
The emergence of advanced AI systems is by far the most surprising event this year, turning everything upside down, while risks and benefits are debated. AI will also become an arms race between the US and China.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
As China navigates global fragmentation, its cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement, and growth is threatened by US breakthroughs in generative AI, limited computing power, and geopolitical tensions.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
Japan’s expertise in semiconductors and robotic integration could be the foundation of AI dominance. Combining two of this year's themes, Japanese equities and artificial intelligence, brings a wave of opportunities.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling, pushing crypto further into no-man’s-land. There are striking similarities between AI and crypto, and if these are to come full circle, AI won't be spared for bubbles.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
Stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) have appeared on investors' radars. Expectations are high, but it may be necessary to consider how to get exposure to AI in a diversified way.
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
The USD is on its back foot as markets celebrate an eventual Fed rate peak and steady long US yields. The stakes are even higher for the Japanese yen if longer major sovereign yield curves have to price in economic acceleration.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
While commodities, broadly speaking, have faced some tough months, a partial reversal during June could signal that the asset class is getting back on its feet with energy holding up and precious metals with upside potential.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As inflation remains high central banks face hard decisions about whether they should keep hiking interest rates or stop. Meanwhile, the rise of AI creates bubble-like conditions that only make the decision harder.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist