US Election Countdown: T-minus One Day – Podcast Round-up US Election Countdown: T-minus One Day – Podcast Round-up US Election Countdown: T-minus One Day – Podcast Round-up

US Election Countdown: T-minus One Day – Podcast Round-up

Macro 5 minutes to read
Picture of John Hardy
John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  Today I offer a podcast round-up of the series of articles I have run on the US Election Countdown since last Tuesday, with a few maps on Electoral College scenarios, as well as final thoughts on where to focus as election night voting totals roll in.


Today’s article is mostly The Election Countdown Round-up Podcast I uploaded to our podcast host – please have a listen there. Also, below are a series of further notes for perspective on some of the electoral scenarios I discuss on the podcast and some final thoughts on Election Night timing.

Prior articles in this series

Electoral Map Scenarios
Below are three electoral map scenarios with very different implications for the ability of Biden and the Democrats to realize their agenda after Inauguration Day on January 20. My impression of the spectrum of likely outcomes is that a slightly stronger (add Georgia) than the “Blue Wave base case” scenario is at the middle of my distribution of likely outcomes.

Scenario: Murphy’s Law "The Train Wreck"
As I noted in my Election Countdown piece yesterday on whether the major polls and I have the situation all wrong and this Election could prove as close – or closer in electoral college terms – than 2016, then Pennsylvania is the likely key state that makes the difference – in which case the electoral college vote would likely look like what you see below. In this scenario, the only difference is that Michigan and Wisconsin flip back to the Dems with a nail-biter outcome in Pennsylvania. In such a scenario, Biden would likely win by an even larger popular vote margin than did Clinton. The situation in Pennsylvania, with suits and countersuits on whether mail-in votes can be counted a certain number of days after the election and other issues, together with a tardy counting process and low early voting totals means that if the election hangs on the outcome in Pennsylvania, we will be in for the ugliest, drawn out contested election scenario imaginable. Even a theoretical “result” of vote tallies might not be the final word. Let’s hope it doesn’t come down to this.

02_11_2020_JJH_Podcast_Electoral_MurphysLaw
Source: 270toWin.com

Scenario: Minimal Blue Wave Base Case
The map below is the likely minimal margin required by the Democrats to both send Biden over the top and to win a 50-50 for Dems in the Senate (with VP Harris casting he deciding vote) – from the current 53-47 – as the Dems are likely to lose an Alabama Senate seat, but win seats in Maine, North Carolina, Arizona and Colorado. 

02_11_2020_JJH_Podcast_Electoral_BaseCase
Source: 270toWin.com

Scenario Three: Blue Tsunami
In this scenario, far stronger than expected turnout and polls overfitted for the 2016 election fail to register the surge in young voters in particular and we get the most lopsided results in the electoral college since 1988. The below map would be a political earthquake with Texas as the chief prize for the Dems (the 2020 census and political district redrawings and new electoral votes added there from population growth and in Georgia would further erode the traditional Republican base). This kind of result would make for a far more powerful Democratic mandate to do everything from massive stimulus to Supreme Court packing and adding Puerto Rico and Washington DC as new states, etc.

02_11_2020_JJH_Podcast_Electoral_BlueTsunami
Source: 270toWin.com

Election Night timing
Besides the two websites I have linked to for a basic overview of Election Night poll closings and the more thorough spin on how quickly results might be available, I would just add once again here that Florida in particular, but also North Carolina, are the two states most in the crosshairs in the first two-three hours after polls close. Both states will have tallied their early votes and could dump the majority of these at the closing of the polls. They will start dramatically Democrat, but how quickly that fades towards Republicans after the more Trump-leaning districts close at 20:00 US Eastern Time will be crucial. Over 90% of Florida has reported by 20:30 after which the final 10% came in slowly.

For the Blue Tsunami scenario, I would focus on Texas, results, where early in-person voter turnout has been staggering (polls close there at 21:00 and 22:00 Eastern US Time)

Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan all report in painfully slow fashion and if overall election is a nail-biter, get ready for a long night on their account.

Keep in mind that the market projects results far more quickly than the news networks. At midnight in New York (0600 CET in Europe), the market had predicted the outcome hours earlier, even with decisive states theoretically up in the air and not called by the major networks. (only 64% of Michigan counted at midnight New York / 0600 CET, for example).

 

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.