Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 26...

Top of Mind…

• Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 26… Hope everyone had a safe, restful & in some cases globally – impactfull wkd. Lastly, a Happy Father’s day to the people out there who have stepped up to being the absolute best fathers that they can be.

• What kind of week are you trying to have?

• Hard to imagine, we are almost half way through the year – for some reason, feels like we are already in 2021! Meanwhile when you look at the protests globally, looks like a copy past from the 1960s & 1920s!

• So far Asia Mon morning, start of the wk seems neither there nor here. US EQ futures are a touch up by +0.30% to +0.40%, yet rest of Asia Equities are mixed so far.

• Meanwhile the dollar is neither here not there, it is interesting to see the grind up in precious metals continues as we see gold up c. +0.80% at 1757 lvls… & silver almost +2% at c. 17.96. Gold around these $1750 lvls is big deal, as if we get a weekly close (preferably two) it could signal that we are finally breaking out of the $1680 / 1700 / 1725 / 1750 trading range of the last few months. 

• Here are some of the recent works that the Dragon has done on gold: Checking in on Paul Tudor Jones & the Bull Case for Gold 
  

• From an economic & central bank perspective, this wk should be much lighter than last wk. Flash PMIs are the theme from an economic data standpoint, as well as durable good, CORE PCE & final 1Q GDP out of the US.

• There are a few central bank governors speaking from the likes of BoC, BoE & the RBA. Yet actual decision will be coming out of New Zealand, Thailand, Philippines, Turkey & Mexico – with a skew between staying put, or cutting rates.

• Central Banks: New Zealand, Thailand, Philippines, Turkey & Mexico.

• Holidays: No major holidays due, yet worth keeping in mind two wkds from now will be 4^th of July wkd in the US, which will be likely be the most important in decades given the combination of Covid-19, social instability, protests around police brutality & systematic segregation, as well as the final stretch of the US presidential elections.      

• US: Flash PMIs, Housing Data, Rich Mfg, Durable Goods, Final 1Q GDP -5.0%e/p, PCE, Personal Income & Spending

• CH: Industrial Profits

• EZ: Flash PMIs, M3 Money supply, Consumer Confidence

• JP: Flash PMIs, BoJ Core CPI, BoJ Mins, All Industries Activity

• UK: Flash PMIs, BoE Gov Bailey speaking, Bond Auctions, BoE Quarterly Bulletin

• AU: Flash PMIs, RBA Gov Lowe speaking

• NZ: RBNZ, Credit Card Spending, Trade Balance

• CA: BoC New Gov Macklem speaking

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Start-End = Gratitude+Integrity+Vision. Create Luck. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.


Namaste,

KVP