Macro Digest: Next policy change... when panic goes to angst!

Macro

Steen Jakobsen

Chief Investment Officer

Summary:  We think the Fed will cut rates before the scheduled 18 March FOMC meeting and most likely by a FULL 75 bps - to get some effect and get ahead of the market before they hit the zero bound for policy rates.


Conditions:  The market volatility (VIX spot) is 45%, 30Y US Fixed Income is up 4 points today alone & WTI Crude is down 30% since the beginning of the year.

What’s next:

  • We fully expect G7+ (most of G20, even) meetings this weekend
  • China could announce a massive fiscal expansion over the weekend
  • Maybe a surprise Friday cut in policy rates
  • Easing on regulation for banks next week…
  • The ECB will meet next Thursday – I doubt the market can wait
  • A move by the ECB and the Fed to buy equities could be the ultimate panic reaction from policy makers

My personal take:

  • It’s going to be an extremely volatile Friday session with plenty of rumors and noise.
  • Watch 9.00-10.30 CET time for Fed announcements or from US Treasury
  • I’m watching closely: Credit, WTI Crude (gauge for real market risk  – WTI is now down 30%), and US 10-year yields and gold
  • Positioning – reduced long volatility trades to 50% of total relative to my Monday note, still Long Gold, long EURUSD (this is major break @ 1.1240)
  • Remaining alert and totally flexible with plenty of cash to use as opportunities arise over the next week
  • Buying some SPX calls on open today 9.30 CET  - 3200 March (14 days left of tenor)

Policy makers are now beyond panic – they are in angst mode (and for good reason as their own ignorance has made the present crisis worse) and that’s when you really need to take notice.

We have reduced long volatility and will starting hedging/trading upside policy action over the next week

We suggest buying March – S&P Future calls (one example below)

06_SJN_1

The most difficult thing as a trader is to have the flexibility to change your view – there are hundreds of reasons to be bearish here and fear the next two weeks, but central banks and politicians are thinking the same thing. Being short the market, you want the market to collapse, while they want to stabilize it and will shred the rule book to try to do so. 

Historically policymakers have had very big policy “bazookas” to counter all negative moves in excess of 10% :

1987, 1992, 2000, 2008/9, 2011 – the present situation to this seasoned veteran is a total repeat of 2008 – even the projection of policy rates is following the same play book:

The time line of Federal Reserve moves in 2008 below (Source: St. Lois Fred with my edit)


12/16/08| 0-.25%|0.25-0.50%|SURPRISE |Easing |-.75% | 0.50%|10-0
10/29/08| 1.00%| 1.00%|Expected |Easing |-0.50%| 1.25%|10-0
10/08/08| 1.50% |n/a |Unscheduled|Easing |-0.50%| 1.75%|10-0

10/07/08 conference call to review recent developments
09/29/08 conference call to review recent developments
07/24/08 conference call to discuss liquidity facilities

04/30/08| 2.00%| 2.00%|Expected |Easing |-0.25%| 2.25%| 8-2
03/18/08| 2.25%| 2.25%|Expected |Easing |-0.75%| 2.50%| 8-2

03/10/08 conference call to review financial market development

01/30/08| 3.00%| 3.00%|Expected |Easing |-0.50%| 3.50%| 9-1
01/22/08| 3.50%|n/a      |Unscheduled|Easing |-0.75%| 4.00%| 8-1


  • 2008: January 22nd Fed cuts – unscheduled – 75 bps and then on regular meeting another 50%
  • 2020: March 3th – Fed cuts – unscheduled  -50 bps – and now market expects another 50 bps by March 18th!

But… but...

We think the present markets will force the Fed to cut by 75 bps pre-meeting – Why?

  • Fed is now nearing the zero-bound, or limits to how much they can cut rates – going 50 or 25 bps makes no difference, but going 75 bps would have some “shock and awe” with it
  • Fed is now close to restarting QE or yield-curve-control
  • Fed meets March 18th – that’s a long time away in conditions like this!
  • The US yield curve is now bottoming one-year out @34 bps – Thirty-FOUR basis points!  1 Y rates will fallen 112 bps in ONE MONTH and 10 yrs fallen 87 bps! This is an unprecedented yield curve shift relative to the world pretending everything is fine!
  • Credit is blowing up! Airlines collapsing – next bankruptcy is a few weeks away
  • High yield is tanking
  • Energy is tanking
  • The coronavirus spread will accelerate in the US over the next two weeks (minimum) as testing expands, and will do the same in Europe
  • We are now in a global recession – set to lose a full quarter of production –  Companies, in particular SME’s and non-listed companies, have on average 1-3 months of cash reserves and we are deep into the second month now.

US Yield Curve today vs. One month ago

06_SJN_2
Source: Bloomberg

VIX spot – now higher than 2015

06_SJN_3
Source: Bloomberg

SPX with retracements levels for reference

06_SJN_4
Source: Saxo Bank

Below is a number of stocks you can place in a Watchlist you can create in your platform 

Airlines today and yesterday!

06_SJN_5
Source: Saxo Bank

#SaxoCredit basket

06_SJN_6
Source: Saxo Bank

SAXO CFD Indices today

06_SJN_7
Source: Saxo Bank

Country ETFs - Saxo

06_SJN_8
Source: Saxo Bank

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.