Global Market Quick Take: Asia – May 3, 2024

Equities: Fed Chair Powell’s pushback to rate hike expectations helped NASDAQ 100 and Rusell 2000 to be the outperformers among the US equity indices, while Dow and S&P 500 also closed higher. Tech momentum also held up ahead of Apple earnings, which reported stronger-than-expected numbers last quarter and unveiled a bumper $110B stock buyback along with an increase in dividend, despite headwinds in China. Apple stock price was up 7% in after-hours trading.

The next key test for the markets comes from the NFP jobs report today, where leading indicators have been showing some signs of a slowdown but hard data has remains strong. Dovish repricing risks remain large given market’s stretched expectations.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index continued to build on its recent momentum despite onshore China markets closed. HSI was up 2.5% yesterday, and the Hong Kong Tech index was up 4.5%

FX: The dollar trend seems to be turning as market faces dovish repricing risks. DXY index is the lowest in three weeks and heading for its second consecutive weekly decline. AUD and JPY outperformed on dollar weakness, with AUDUSD heading back higher for another test of the 100DMA at 0.6583. USDJPY slipped to fresh lows of 152.88 as suspected intervention and lower yields are lending support to the yen. With NFP due out today and Japan markets closed for a four-day weekend, there remains risk of further intervention, which can bring the pair down closer to 150-handle. USDCHF fell below 0.91 handle on higher Swiss CPI, testing key support in the 0.9088 area, break of which will clear the path to 0.90. GBP and EUR lagged, with GBPUSD still wobbling around 1.25 and EURUSD around 1.07.

Commodities: Copper traded lower again as the recent rally to two-year highs faces a correction risk and Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole Hansen, discusses the reasons and levels to watch in this article. Gold slipped as well despite cooling in yields, as high-for-longer rates continued to be a concern. Crude oil prices were little changed as the market contemplates the geopolitical backdrop and demand outlook.

Fixed income: Treasury markets continued to digest Powell’s comments that did not meet the high bar set by the market expectations, and short-end was relatively better bid. Focus now turns to US jobs data for April due today.

Macro:

• US jobless claims were unchanged on the week at 208k with the prior revised up to 208k from 207k, despite expectations for a rise to 212k. The 4wk average fell to 210k from 213.5k. The continued claims for the preceding week were also unchanged with the prior revised down to 1.774mln. April NFP data is the next big focus today, and expectations for that and the likely market reactions were discussed in this article.
• Switzerland CPI for April came in at a 4-month high of 1.4% YoY vs. 1.0% previous and 1.1% expected. The market-implied probability of a June rate cut from the SNB slid to 65% from 96% the day before, even as ECB's June rate cut odds remain at 93%.
• ECB speakers continued to make a case for the June rate cut, which could be seen as a policy mistake if the manufacturing cycle continues to turn and threatens a return of goods inflation. ECB’s Lane said that this year and next year, the more the data validates inflation coming back to target, the more we'll be able to remove restriction. ECB's Stournaras said three rate cuts this year are probable.

Macro events: Chinese Market Holiday (Labor Day), Japan Market Holiday (Constitution Memorial Day), EZ/UK/US Services and Composite Final PMIs (Apr), US Jobs Report (Apr), US ISM Services PMI (Apr), Norges Bank Policy Announcement

Earnings: Novonesis, Danske Bank, Credit Agricole, Societe Generale, Intesa Sanpaolo, MercadoLibre, Monster Beverage. Weekend: Berkshire Hathaway

News:

• Apple unveils record $110 billion buyback as results beat low expectations (Reuters)
• Hedge Funds Buying Protection With Defensive Stocks, Goldman Says (Bloomberg)
• BoC says there's a limit to how far US and Canada rates can diverge (Reuters)
• Nasdaq Plans More Short-Term Options on Commodity, Treasury ETFs (Bloomberg)

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

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