AVM's Global Macro CIO Ashvin Murthy on reflation, positive real rates, US dominance, Fed & no YCC
Summary: Our fourth Dragon Interview takes us back to checking in with AVM's Global Macro CIO Ashvin Murthy - Ash walks us through his latest top of mind thoughts, including positioning in the shifting regime, inflation, real yields, no YCC, the Fed & the potential US dominance theme.
Latest Dragon Interviews series, we check in with a very special guest, AVM's Global Macro CIO, Ashvin Murthy
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Post our foundation piece with Global Macro Hedge Fund AVM's Ashvin Murthy in Oct of 2020, we catch up with Ash to get his latest thoughts as we head into a likely series of very key Fed meetings in regards to them being neutral, vs potentially hiking, vs the YCC route.
We touch on a number of things, including:
- Bond yields & real interest rate levels - including context from previous ranges
- Inflation & deflationary forces
- Powell doing a great job at the Fed, letting the market doing the heavy lifting
- Biden administration & the corp. taxes on the way, as a function of funding infra.
- Red hot US economy, all pre the full opening of the country & still with a cold 1Q21 winter, plus with latest +$1.9 trn bill
- Yield curve control (YCC) likely in the pit-stop for a while
- US exceptionalism & the risks to emerging markets, especially the fragile five
- The broader global macro regime that we find ourselves in
Links: AVM Global Opportunity Fund — https://avmglobal.fund/
Watch our debut Dragon Interviews piece here — http://bit.ly/ditvashvin
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