Video length: 57 minutes
Macro

AVM's Global Macro CIO Ashvin Murthy on reflation, positive real rates, US dominance, Fed & no YCC

Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Our fourth Dragon Interview takes us back to checking in with AVM's Global Macro CIO Ashvin Murthy - Ash walks us through his latest top of mind thoughts, including positioning in the shifting regime, inflation, real yields, no YCC, the Fed & the potential US dominance theme.

Latest Dragon Interviews series, we check in with a very special guest, AVM's Global Macro CIO, Ashvin Murthy

Join the Dragon Interviews series, as Global Macro Consigliere KVP, interviews some of the best of breed players in the craft of steadily compounding wealth - be that across liquid or illiquid assets, global macro investing, venture capital, crypto, equities, commodities, currencies, bonds, private equity, property, etc.

Its all about the craft & the exceptional talented individuals behind their craft.

Post our foundation piece with Global Macro Hedge Fund AVM's Ashvin Murthy in Oct of 2020, we catch up with Ash to get his latest thoughts as we head into a likely series of very key Fed meetings in regards to them being neutral, vs potentially hiking, vs the YCC route.

We touch on a number of things, including:

  • Bond yields & real interest rate levels - including context from previous ranges

  • Inflation & deflationary forces

  • Powell doing a great job at the Fed, letting the market doing the heavy lifting

  • Biden administration & the corp. taxes on the way, as a function of funding infra.

  • Red hot US economy, all pre the full opening of the country & still with a cold 1Q21 winter, plus with latest +$1.9 trn bill

  • Yield curve control (YCC) likely in the pit-stop for a while

  • US exceptionalism & the risks to emerging markets, especially the fragile five 

  • The broader global macro regime that we find ourselves in

Links: AVM Global Opportunity Fund — https://avmglobal.fund/

Watch our debut Dragon Interviews piece here — http://bit.ly/ditvashvin

As always we hope you enjoy the interview as much as we did putting it together, please feel free to share.

Namaste,

-KVP

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33
CH-8002
Zurich
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved, we have put together a general Risk Warning and a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed here or within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.