中國内地經濟復甦加速 中國内地經濟復甦加速 中國内地經濟復甦加速

中國内地經濟復甦加速

Macro 5 minutes to read
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Redmond Wong

Chief China Strategist

中國採購經理指數調查激增預示經濟復甦勢頭回暖

官方公佈的國家統計局製造業採購經理指數從 1 月份的 50.1 飆升至 2 月份的 52.6,為 2012 年以來的最高水平。 生產分項指數和新訂單分項指數分別顯著提高至 56.7 54.1。指數超過 50 時便代表擴張。

迄今為止一直低迷的出口部門顯示出強勁復甦的跡象。 國家統計局調查中的新出口訂單分項指數從 1 月份的 46.1 意外飆升至 2 月份的 52.4,這是 23 個月來首次回到擴張區域。 與國家統計局調查相比,包括比較多沿海地區出口導向型地區民營企業的財新製造業採購經理指數也從 1 月份的 49.2 強勁回升至 2 月份的 51.6,財新調查中的新出口訂單分項指數從 48.7反彈到 52.2

國家統計局非製造業採購經理指數繼續加速擴張,從 54.4 升至 56.3。 兩大主要分項指數均進一步上漲,服務分項指數升至 55.6,建築分項指數飆升至 60.2

採購經理指數的激增是對經濟復甦的最新確認,正如我們在第一季度展望中所指出的那樣,內地從防疫情措施中重新開放與信貸週期和監管週期的好轉(正常化和穩定而不是收緊),加上外交政策趨於緩和,令內地經濟復甦勢頭浮現。

中國消費股和科技股可能會從周期性好轉中受益

隨著經濟活動、家庭收入和人員流動從放寬防疫措施中回升,消費將在未來幾個月內復蘇,服務行業尤其可能會經歷强勁反彈。 經營B2C電子商務平台的科技股將受益於消費增長。 此外,對科技行業更為寬鬆和製度化的監管方式也將消除一些投資者對中國互聯網龍頭企業面對監管方面不確定性的憂慮。 中國消費股和科技股可能會受益於今天的採購經理指數,以及未來陸續出現更多確認中國經濟周期性好轉的經濟數據的支持而上升。

以下是盛寶的中國消費和科技股票主題籃子,以提供參考,並非推薦股票,讀者應自行對主題籃子中列出的公司進行進一步研究。

China Consumer  Tech
Saxo China Consumer and Technology equity theme basket

小巨人企業可能成為長期增長亮點

隨著市場反彈和投資者提高中國股票的權重,更成熟的大型科技股可能在短期內受益最大,但從長期來看,在創新行業擁有一定成功業績的中型公司可能會提供更好的增長機會。

國家工業和信息化部已授予 9,000 多家符合以下標準的“小巨人”企業:

- 專注於創新行業

- 在創新領域佔據高市場份額

- 展示強大的創新能力

- 將至少 3% 的收入用於研發

- 主營業務收入每年有至少5%增長

- 過去兩年有盈利

這些小巨人公司中有760多家是上市公司,主要分佈在A股市場。 我們創建了一個中國小巨人股票主題籃子供參考,投資者可以多加關注並自行進一步研究,以及適當考慮投資內地中、小型私營企業的相關風險。

littel giants
Saxo China Little Giants equity theme basket

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