Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
USDJPY has maintained its strong upward momentum after breaking out of its recent trading range last week.
The pair is now trading above the 1.618 Fibonacci projection of the February-March correction, pointing to further potential gains.
The immediate target lies at the 2.00 projection at 155.30, as indicated by two vertical blue arrows. Additionally, an extension towards 156.36 remains a viable possibility, given the current bullish dynamics.
The RSI positive sentiment and no signs of divergence i.e., no indication of trend exhaustion is supporting the bullish outlook. This alignment between the price movement and RSI suggests that the upward trend in USDJPY is robust and could continue without immediate reversal signals.
EURJPY has bounced from the lower rising trendline and support around 162.30-162.60.
Currently testing the 0.618 retracement at 164.07 EURJPY seems likely to move higher in coming days and week.
A daily close above 165.18 could trigger a rally towards the 166.30 to 167 range
A daily close below 162.30 could initiate a decline down to around 160.38
RSI divergence suggests that while the current trend is up, EURJPY might struggle to reach new highs, indicating potential exhaustion in buying momentum.
However, if RSI is closing back above 60 threshold and above its upper falling trendline it could be a sign of renewed buying that could push the pair higher
GBPJPY once again bounced from the 0.618 retracement at 190.08.
However, GBPJPY could be caught range-bound between 190.00-193.50 for the next few days.
A breakout is needed for direction. A bullish breakout is likely supported by RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence leading to a move to the 1.618 projection at 195.90, around the 2015 peak.
Conversely, a bearish breakout is likely to push GBP/JPY down to strong support at around 187.86.
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2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.