background image background image background image

Technical Update - EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD and GBPUSD. Key support and resistance levels to observe

Forex 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  EURUSD likely to test key support at 1.0730
USDJPY testing key resistance, potential to +150
USDCHF breaking bullish above falling trendline, potential to 0.8820
AUDUSD below key support could drop to 0.64-0.63
GBPUSD testing support trying to break range bound trading, could sell-off to 1.25


EURUSD couldn’t even test the 55 DMA before sellers regained control. EURUSD now back below 200 and 100 DMA’s seems set for a test of the key strong support at around 1.0730.
Negative RSI sentiment is supporting that scenario.

A close below 1.0730 could very well send EURUSD lower towards the 0.786 retracement at around 1.06
A close above 1.09 is needed to demolish the bearish picture

eurusd d 0502
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group
USDJPY is testing key resistance at around 148.80. A close above is likely leading to levels in the 150’s. Resistance at around 149.75 and the 2022 peak just a few cents below 152.
RSI is in positive sentiment indicating USDJPY will break higher.

A close below 145.85 is likely to send USDJPY to 144.52 but could drop to 143.52.
The 55 DMA add to the support likely limiting the downside potential.
usdjpy d 0502

USDCHF has broken and closed above its upper falling trendline currently testing the 0.786 retracement at 0.8690.
RSI is in positive sentiment supporting the current bullish move that is likely to take USDCHF to the strong resistance at around 0.8820.
Minor resistance at 0.8728.

A close below 0.8550 will demolish the bullish picture and likely send USDCHF back down to 0.8455

usdchf d 0502

AUDUSD closed Friday below key strong support at around 0.6520.
That support is also  the Neckline in the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern with down side potential to the Consolidation area 0.64-0.63.
Negative sentiment on RSI is supporting the bearish scenario

A close above 0.6625 will demolish the SHS top and reversal scenario

audusd d 0502

GBPUSD is at the time of writing below support at around 1.2610. If closing below and if RSI is closing below 40 threshold GBPUSD is likely to initiate a sell-off down to around 1.25

If failing to close below 1.2610 GBPUSD is likely to stay range bound between 1.2610 and 1.2775

 

gbpusd d 0502

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15
2900
Hellerup
Denmark

Contact Saxo

Select region

International
International

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.