Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
AUDJPY has reached the 0.786 retracement at 103.91, spiking to a few pips above 104. The bullish move is now a bit stretched, as indicated by the RSI divergence. A correction is likely to unfold.
But quite possibly a minor correction down to the 0.382 retracement and minor support at 102.46.
If closing below 102.46, AUDJPY could be hit with further selling down to the 0.618 retracement at 101.49. RSI closing below its lower risisng trendline could be a strong indication of this sceanrio to unfold
If AUDJPY is taking out 104.04, the pair could push higher to the previous peak at around 105.
AUDUSD is currently testing key resistance at around 0.6640-0.6650. A daily close above is likely to fuel a rally to 0.6750, possibly 0.6819. RSI is showing positive sentiment with no divergence supporting a bullish move.
A close below 0.6555 will demolish the bullish picture.